A statistical analysis of Chris G's dominance of Big Two over the past year

JETROCKETSKATES

How Dominant is Chris G on the East Coast?

For the last year, Chris G has been one of the most dominant players in Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3. From majors to weeklys, he has consistently placed highly. At this point, I believe that there is no real argument that he is the best player on the east coast, the question I propose is “By how much?” For the sake of this, I’ve used data from Next Level’s weekly “Big Two” tournament to compare Chris G’s consistency in performance to other players on the East Coast. Keep in mind that this data is not 100% complete, nor is it any sort of be-all-end-all description of who is the best. A solid handful of strong east coast players (Including MarlinPie, Josh Wong, MastaCJ, DJ Huoshen and others) rarely make it out to Big Two, so while this is a decent overview, it does end up being pretty New York centered. I’d aslo like to state that all of it is done by hand, and there is the extreme possibility of small errors. I may be missing a pair of Big Two results, and three or four others I could not find out whether or not the winner was in losers bracket at any point.


So let’s jump into the simple face value of winning percentage of all of the Big Two events from 11/16/11 to 10/18/12.



The data speaks for itself here. In the past year of UMvC3, Chris G has won roughly 72.34% of the Big Two UMvC3 tournaments, with a 4.08% margin of error provided by the 2 tournaments I missed in my data.



To further examine the strength of other east coast players in comparison, I devised a point system for each tournament, wherein each player receives a set number of points for their placement. The system is:

· 4 points for a first place finish, without being in losers bracket at any point, including losing a grand finals set
· 3 points for a first place finish where the winner either came out of losers bracket, or had the bracket reset on them in grand finals
· 2 points for a second place finish
· 1 point for a third place finish


I believe using a 4 point system instead of a 3 point system better represents overall dominance. A player who goes the whole tournament without losing is more on their game than a player who loses a set at some point, and I wanted to reflect that in the data. Again, due to missing data, there is a roughly 4% margin of error for the data.




I think the results speak for themselves in this graph. Chris G has not only solidly performed week after week, but he has also avoided losing any sets at all in 24/34 or 70.59% of the time.



So there you have it. A complete statistical analysis of Chris G’s dominance of East Coast play since UMvC3’s release. Feel free to correct my margins of error, I'm pretty awful, so there's probably other stuff I missed, and enjoy.

DATA SOURCES: Team Sp00ky/Next Level Challonge, Fight VG

jetman81

Chris G has been the east coast's best player for quite some time, and with his recent defeat of FChamp in their exhibition match, has cemented his status as the best in the world.

DevilJin 01

Don't really need pie charts to put together what the ratios are like...but yeah its nice to get the CNN on this shit loool.

Sent from my T-Mobile G2 using Tapatalk 2

trick82

Noel Brown is in 2nd place...
It'd be interesting to see a FT15 set between Yipes and ChrisG though.

J.D

That's because the main boss never enters the tournament.

Rokmode

If you look at it from a weird angle, it looks like pacman eating all the other winners alive. It makes sense.

DrewGrimey

But I thought Marvel was random?

Kanta-Kun

"The game is random."
"Morrigan is broken."
"It's only because Yipes doesn't go."
"He only wins thanks to Hidden Missiles."
"East Coast is lazy."
"He'd get bodied by West Coast."

There, most of it dumb/irrelevant talk is out of the way now.

Dreize

UMvC3 is random, and Chris only wins because Morrigan is broken. He wouldn't be winning all of these events if Yipes actually bothered attending. The dude spams hidden missiles all day and relies on the broken assist for everything. The east coast players are just lazy and don't bother anymore, it's sad. He'd get bodied for free by good West Coast players like Fanatiq, FChamp, etc.

Spoiler:

But in all seriousness, Chris G is really really good. I'm also disappointed with Marlin, it really seems like he just hasn't adjusted to the MorriDoom; which in part is because of his team. The Marlin Vs. Chris G match-up used to be like 50/50, now it's pretty free in Chris G's favor. I still laugh every time I see Chris's disappointed face after losing a match or two. All in all, he's currently one of the best Marvel players in the world; probably top 5 IMO.

DrewGrimey

Kanta-Kun, post: 7614859, member: 14833 wrote:

"He'd get bodied by West Coast."

There, most of it dumb/irrelevant talk is out of the way now.

To be fair he did do poorly in both West coast majors, NCR and SCR

Granted SCR was before using Morridoom and NCR was early on, still curious how he would do now in a WC major. Also, just because he beat Fchamp in a FT15 doesn't mean he would always win a a FT3 tourney match

J.D

DrewGrimey, post: 7615110, member: 12534 wrote:

still curious how he would do now in a WC major.

Curleh Mustache 6 WC edition special guest Chris G DO IT!

That would be great, but since CM5 is next month, I can't expect 6 anytime this year. More than likely the best option for Chris G to go to WC major is SCR.

Din0

Marlinpie was looking unstoppable during SS2K12...then he kinda fell off.

scytheavatar

Din0, post: 7615997, member: 45858 wrote:

Marlinpie was looking unstoppable during SS2K12...then he kinda fell off.

He never really looked unstoppable, even at his prime he screwed up now and then and was beaten at events like Civil War. But back then he did look very solid and seemed to be on his way up.

charlie88

Marlin has stated on twitter he has been slacking and he intends to get back into training and stepping his game up, I think all the second place losses on the break finally got to him. He lost even when using secondary and tertiary teams so....

MetroidDread

Dreize, post: 7614958, member: 64754 wrote:

UMvC3 is random, and Chris only wins because Morrigan is broken. He wouldn't be winning all of these events if Yipes actually bothered attending. The dude spams hidden missiles all day and relies on the broken assist for everything. The east coast players are just lazy and don't bother anymore, it's sad. He'd get bodied for free by good West Coast players like Fanatiq, FChamp, etc.

Spoiler:

But in all seriousness, Chris G is really really good. I'm also disappointed with Marlin, it really seems like he just hasn't adjusted to the MorriDoom; which in part is because of his team. The Marlin Vs. Chris G match-up used to be like 50/50, now it's pretty free in Chris G's favor. I still laugh every time I see Chris's disappointed face after losing a match or two. All in all, he's currently one of the best Marvel players in the world; probably top 5 IMO.

UMVC3 is a game of randomness
no matter how much you train and good you are at your characters theres always a chance you'll get randomed out
Chris G does the hidden missile and Morrigan soul fist loop to prevent randomness from happening

its almost the smartest thing to do in the game to win
when we first saw it our jaws just dropped on how crazy it was
now its so old and boring I dont watch his matches unless someone tells me he had a very close good matches with someone
and i will agree with others that doom needs to be nerfed of his missile that will disappear when hes hit like sentinels droids
and Morrigan not gaining meter durring Astral Vision unless theyre hit by Soul Drain

But yea he is one of the best Marvel players i will never deny that

irl II Wilson

Anybody have a video of the first time chris used this team in tournament play?

<Insert Name Here>

MetroidDread, post: 7616660, member: 70810 wrote:

UMVC3 is a game of randomness
no matter how much you train and good you are at your characters theres always a chance you'll get randomed out

But that chance grows smaller as more time passes and people get overall better at this game. You will very, very rarely see someone like Justin or Yipes randomed out, perhaps never. Even "mid-level" players get randomed out less and less. In the tournaments I've watched the past several weeks there were very few players getting randomed out.

People say that top players get randomed out all of the time yet how many times has it happened in recent tournaments? Not very often.

and Morrigan not gaining meter durring Astral Vision unless theyre hit by Soul Drain

Dunno why people keep asking for this, it won't hurt ChrisG because most of the time he's at a meter deficit after using AV anyway.

irl II Wilson, post: 7616675, member: 57276 wrote:

Anybody have a video of the first time chris used this team in tournament play?

Pretty sure his MorriDoom team had humble beginnings as a troll team on the Break long, long ago.

d3v

Claiming that UMvC3 is random, is like claiming that any game that gives you high reward for low risk (hello MvC2) is random.

double F

irl II Wilson, post: 7616675, member: 57276 wrote:

Anybody have a video of the first time chris used this team in tournament play?

i would love to see that. and then compare it to his videos from Seasons Beatings Ascension

scytheavatar

irl II Wilson, post: 7616675, member: 57276 wrote:

Anybody have a video of the first time chris used this team in tournament play?

When I first saw the team I knew that Chris G had to pick up Morrigan and he'll be unstoppable. Actually he was using Morrigan in week 1 of UMvC3 for his Phoenix Wright/Dante/Morrigan troll team and even back then he was bodying people left and right with Morrigan.

leafcolonel

Chris G was actually using Morrigan since Vanilla with a Morrigan-meter/Ammy-meter/Phoenix team which is one of his original troll teams.

GordonsBeard

What makes ChrisG's style so effective is that it does shut down anything random on his opponent's behalf. While everyone else is looking for one-hit-kills with Vergil/Zero/Dante/Wolverine, ChrisG just makes sure they never get a chance to start any of their mixup game.

It's a completely different way of playing Marvel, and "we" (everyone not ChrisG) really have to change how we play the game if we want to defeat this meta-game. You can no longer go full out maximum damage DPS is king - perhaps it's time to check out Dr. Strange or Rocket Raccoon, or someone that can deal with the game in a different light.

SUPARNOVAX

TL;DR tri-state doesn't have a lot of quality players that want to show up on Wednesday evenings???

DevilJin 01

GordonsBeard, post: 7618466, member: 70048 wrote:

What makes ChrisG's style so effective is that it does shut down anything random on his opponent's behalf. While everyone else is looking for one-hit-kills with Vergil/Zero/Dante/Wolverine, ChrisG just makes sure they never get a chance to start any of their mixup game.

It's a completely different way of playing Marvel, and "we" (everyone not ChrisG) really have to change how we play the game if we want to defeat this meta-game. You can no longer go full out maximum damage DPS is king - perhaps it's time to check out Dr. Strange or Rocket Raccoon, or someone that can deal with the game in a different light.

I'm not changing the way I'm playing because I've already prepared for this from like a long while ago. At first I was going to pick up Morrigan after dropping X-23 because his team was the only team I could think of that seemed interesting with someone other than X-23. Then I remembered I really wanted to play Viper from since Vanilla and took to her. She already has the tools to clear up point Morrigan to the point where Morrigan has to be played in a spot other than first to be able to call hidden missiles more than once or twice successfully where all the missiles end up coming out. It's just Marlin Pie still plays Viper like a gimped Magneto and it's starting to hurt him with him just mostly focusing on rushdown when Viper has like top 3 meterless zoning in the game. He really should be winning 40 percent of the time at minimum against Chris G if he just put the tools together instead of just trying to beat Chris G to the punch which characters like Wolverine or Magneto do better any way.


There's nothing completely different about it since other players are using it and making it work as well. Ryry just won a local tournament with Magneto andor Zero/Morri/Doom and there's other players like JRosa using Morri Doom also. It's just Chris G is a top player so he's just making it work the best out of everyone doing it.




People could do a lot of stuff including playing characters like Hawkeye on point, Captain America on point, putting Morrigan behind somebody like Vergil, throwing Storm in there (even like some desperate Storm anchor shit just so you can XF2 kill off Doom really easily) etc. Just people need to be more creative. The problem is most people are playing these rushdown ass teams that are forced to stay on top off Doom at all times. The one time you let hidden missiles release you're SOL with a mostly rushdown centric team. People have to get to Doom and get rid of Doom.

Whatever gets rid of Doom will get the meta moving again.

GordonsBeard

Yeah I was watching some old Big Two footage and saw that TA Moons was getting through ChrisG pressure with Nova (sidenote TA Moon's Nova is fucking on point recently) and it really made me think that if you played smart you don't have to lose to this shit - and you don't have to make a different team just for the meta-game.

DevilJin 01, post: 7618562, member: 1242 wrote:

The one time you let hidden missiles release you're SOL with a mostly rushdown centric team. People have to get to Doom and get rid of Doom.

Whatever gets rid of Doom will get the meta moving again.

I heartily agree with this. I see so many GOOD players get hit with some missiles, take a full combo, and instead holding that and just collecting themselves they jump right back into the fray - exactly what Chris is hoping for.

eivellordsm2

MetroidDread, post: 7616660, member: 70810 wrote:

when we first saw it our jaws just dropped on how crazy it was

yea when dieminion was doing it before he even had the game...

GomuGomu

GordonsBeard, post: 7618578, member: 70048 wrote:

Yeah I was watching some old Big Two footage and saw that TA Moons was getting through ChrisG pressure with Nova (sidenote TA Moon's Nova is fucking on point recently) and it really made me think that if you played smart you don't have to lose to this shit - and you don't have to make a different team just for the meta-game.

Well, it does help that Moons' team actually has ways to deal with Moridoom. At the very least you're going to need an alternate team just in case that combination comes up in tournament.

Tetsuro

How is this thread a statistical analysis of anything? All you've done is presented the data in graph form.

mauro

the only way I've come up in order to beat HIS team (I haven't seen anyone be able to pull what ChrisG does with Morrigan & Doom) is to aim for the assist. After you get rid of Doom you'll be able to move a little more and attack.

Gotta watch for those Shell kicks, though. :)

Rokmode

MetroidDread, post: 7616660, member: 70810 wrote:

and i will agree with others that doom needs to be nerfed of his missile that will disappear when hes hit like sentinels droids

If we're going to nerf missiles to droid status, can I at least pick which droid it'll be?
Personally, I'd like to see

Spoiler:

Dreize

Problem with that is, the shield around the droid has wayyy too much projectile durability.

Spoiler:

Lesson of the day: Spell things correctly while using the internet, or a grammar nazi will make you look like a retard.

just5moreminutes

mauro, post: 7622260, member: 70301 wrote:

the only way I've come up in order to beat HIS team (I haven't seen anyone be able to pull what ChrisG does with Morrigan & Doom) is to aim for the assist. After you get rid of Doom you'll be able to move a little more and attack.

Gotta watch for those Shell kicks, though. :)

Yeah, that's part of the problem. AV Morrigan is VERY good at covering her assist.You can't even throw out hypers with Soul Fists creeping up behind you at all times. Best way I can think of is maybe use repulsar blast to cover yourself while you throw out your assist snipe.

fenrir04

just5moreminutes, post: 7623078, member: 45295 wrote:

Yeah, that's part of the problem. AV Morrigan is VERY good at covering her assist.You can't even throw out hypers with Soul Fists creeping up behind you at all times. Best way I can think of is maybe use repulsar blast to cover yourself while you throw out your assist snipe.

That's a good idea but there's one VERY bad thing about it: Iron Man.

ThatJollyOlBastid

DevilJin 01, post: 7618562, member: 1242 wrote:

gets rid of Doom will get the meta moving again.

Theres always this...

Spoiler:

DevilJin 01

Problem is XF1 isn't as scary as it used to be so people aren't going to be as inclined as they used to be to get use XF1 to get rid of Doom or anything for that matter. People usually only use XF1 now when they've already killed a character on the other team.

You would definitely want to use XF2 if you were going to do anything like that. XF1 won't cut it.

NonSexualRice

Chris G's only winning Big Two, because I don't show up.

Flux

just5moreminutes

ThatJollyOlBastid, post: 7623098, member: 46709 wrote:

Theres always this...

Spoiler:

Magneto is the answer to everything, you know.

weskerlvl3win

MetroidDread, post: 7616660, member: 70810 wrote:

UMVC3 is a game of randomness
no matter how much you train and good you are at your characters theres always a chance you'll get randomed out
Chris G does the hidden missile and Morrigan soul fist loop to prevent randomness from happening

its almost the smartest thing to do in the game to win
when we first saw it our jaws just dropped on how crazy it was
now its so old and boring I dont watch his matches unless someone tells me he had a very close good matches with someone
and i will agree with others that doom needs to be nerfed of his missile that will disappear when hes hit like sentinels droids
and Morrigan not gaining meter durring Astral Vision unless theyre hit by Soul Drain

But yea he is one of the best Marvel players i will never deny that

...so marvels random

but chris g picks a team that eliminates randomness

so marvel is random

....right.....

MetaSkipper

ChrisG not doing relatively well in Canada cup (and by that, I mean he only got to top 16). Now, I've heard it's his first foreign tournament, but still. Went 0-3 both times, losing to Joker and Ricky.

ELSALVADORPOWER9001

Yipes is still the best, fuck what ya heard

DevilJin 01

MetaSkipper, post: 7642621, member: 60281 wrote:

ChrisG not doing relatively well in Canada cup (and by that, I mean he only got to top 16). Now, I've heard it's his first foreign tournament, but still. Went 0-3 both times, losing to Joker and Ricky.

Not uncommon to see people who dominate in their local area lose out to foreign stuff in another area. If Chris G sat in an area for a long time it would get harder for people to beat him in that area as time went on.

Joker actually did the right thing against Morrigan Missiles for once and happened to be using a character that meterlessly deals with it well and provides strong assists for it (Iron Man). People are still play terrible footsies against Morrigan Missiles and staying on the ground where all the hit boxes are. Unless your character has no air options you can do shit. Chris didn't play his main team against Ricky Ortiz and well...yeah.

Either way he's won enough majors along with F.Champ to solidify being pretty consistent at majors and he basically does not lose to you if you live near him.

weskerlvl3win

MetaSkipper, post: 7642621, member: 60281 wrote:

ChrisG not doing relatively well in Canada cup (and by that, I mean he only got to top 16). Now, I've heard it's his first foreign tournament, but still. Went 0-3 both times, losing to Joker and Ricky.

joker fucking bopped his ass

people are allowed to play not at their best though, shit happens. not that top 16 is inconsistent or antyhing.....

and he only lost once, that ricky shit dont count

MetaSkipper

Yeah, guys, Top 16 in a national level tournament is ass.