A statistical analysis of Chris G's dominance of Big Two over the past year
How Dominant is Chris G on the East Coast?
For the last year, Chris G has been one of the most dominant players in Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3. From majors to weeklys, he has consistently placed highly. At this point, I believe that there is no real argument that he is the best player on the east coast, the question I propose is “By how much?” For the sake of this, I’ve used data from Next Level’s weekly “Big Two” tournament to compare Chris G’s consistency in performance to other players on the East Coast. Keep in mind that this data is not 100% complete, nor is it any sort of be-all-end-all description of who is the best. A solid handful of strong east coast players (Including MarlinPie, Josh Wong, MastaCJ, DJ Huoshen and others) rarely make it out to Big Two, so while this is a decent overview, it does end up being pretty New York centered. I’d aslo like to state that all of it is done by hand, and there is the extreme possibility of small errors. I may be missing a pair of Big Two results, and three or four others I could not find out whether or not the winner was in losers bracket at any point.
So let’s jump into the simple face value of winning percentage of all of the Big Two events from 11/16/11 to 10/18/12.
The data speaks for itself here. In the past year of UMvC3, Chris G has won roughly 72.34% of the Big Two UMvC3 tournaments, with a 4.08% margin of error provided by the 2 tournaments I missed in my data.
To further examine the strength of other east coast players in comparison, I devised a point system for each tournament, wherein each player receives a set number of points for their placement. The system is:
· 4 points for a first place finish, without being in losers bracket at any point, including losing a grand finals set
· 3 points for a first place finish where the winner either came out of losers bracket, or had the bracket reset on them in grand finals
· 2 points for a second place finish
· 1 point for a third place finish
I believe using a 4 point system instead of a 3 point system better represents overall dominance. A player who goes the whole tournament without losing is more on their game than a player who loses a set at some point, and I wanted to reflect that in the data. Again, due to missing data, there is a roughly 4% margin of error for the data.
I think the results speak for themselves in this graph. Chris G has not only solidly performed week after week, but he has also avoided losing any sets at all in 24/34 or 70.59% of the time.
So there you have it. A complete statistical analysis of Chris G’s dominance of East Coast play since UMvC3’s release. Feel free to correct my margins of error, I'm pretty awful, so there's probably other stuff I missed, and enjoy.
DATA SOURCES: Team Sp00ky/Next Level Challonge, Fight VG