Random is broken...

zUkUuzUkUu Theory ProJoined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
I got the 2nd time in my life 5 times IN A ROW Viper with ultra 2.
That is a chance of 1/(78^5). It's unlikely you'll ever get that in your entire life, I got it TWICE already, and another 4 times streak with another character.

I play random exclusively, and my character statistic shows not a equal usage AT ALL. the random button is everything, but not "random". wonder how that damn thing works.
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Comments

  • Sp00kyFoxSp00kyFox Joined: Posts: 256
    the random result is probably related to your past inputs or the system time. anyway the pseudo random sequence doesn't seem to be uniformly distributed. I also experienced in some fun sessions very unlikely series of character choices.
  • VulpesVulpes No. Joined: Posts: 3,677 ✭✭✭
    The wonders of probability.. which will never be understood..
    Why.
  • Onslaught XOnslaught X Fear, actualizes true strength. Joined: Posts: 915
    Stop trying to make problems out of things that don't even need to be made problems out of.

    Just pick a damn main, voila. :coffee:
  • helhelhelhelohelhelhelhelo True Believer | * * * * | Joined: Posts: 251
    If you don't like the characters that pop out when you pick random then don't pick random and pick a real character
  • ChocobunyChocobuny Joined: Posts: 694 ✭✭✭
    So you picked random, and then you are angry that the selection doesn't make sense?

    Okay.
    Dat Katy
  • Huggy BearHuggy Bear Scoops Häagen-Dazs® Joined: Posts: 1,875 ✭✭✭✭
    I came into this thread hoping you would be talking about how Cammy, Akuma, Seth etc are broken characters because they are based on luck instead of skill (In a ratio of majority)

    Damn ;(
    Logan / Spencer / Gouki

  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    So you picked random, and then you are angry that the selection doesn't make sense?

    Okay.
    I pick random so I get a random character. seeing any character has a chance of 1/39 every time (if you include ultra, that's a chance of 1/78). I just don't want the same character(s) over and over and over again. I swear, I get Oni more then anyone else but I could count on one hand how often I get, Cody for instance. It also seems that I get 9/10 times U2 for Balrog and Gen ._.
    Stop trying to make problems out of things that don't even need to be made problems out of.

    Just pick a damn main, voila. :coffee:
    Random IS my main. I just play the game for the lolz. I'm actually decent with a good portion of the cast.
    I came into this thread hoping you would be talking about how Cammy, Akuma, Seth etc are broken characters because they are based on luck instead of skill (In a ratio of majority)

    Damn ;(

    where are they based on luck? Akuma is the only special character imo, in that you doesn't play him anymore, but only "use" him. Setups, Setups, Setups nothing but setups.
    我道
  • petran79petran79 Here comes an old challenger Joined: Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭
    I'd like a roulette based random feature instead of an invisible option. it happens to me too, sometimes the same character will appear 1/3 of the time.
    not good at any, mediocre at many
  • GroundedSFGroundedSF Joined: Posts: 304 ✭✭
    Last time I played my cousin in a home game we agreed to pick random, which I almost never do, and the game gave us both our mains with the correct ultras :o
  • Onslaught XOnslaught X Fear, actualizes true strength. Joined: Posts: 915
    I came into this thread hoping you would be talking about how Cammy, Akuma, Seth etc are broken characters because they are based on luck instead of skill (In a ratio of majority)(
    :rofl:
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    I just played again, first character: oni.

    played 15 matches or so, and got him 4 times.

    god I hate this game >_>
    我道
  • DanDanDanDan Yeah! Joined: Posts: 1,209 ✭✭
    Are you serious?
    You're looking waaaaaay too hard into something that isn't there.
    What exactly are the benefits of playing Random? :rofl:
    KOF and AE 2012
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    Are you serious?
    You're looking waaaaaay too hard into something that isn't there.
    What exactly are the benefits of playing Random? :rofl:
    fun (for the most part).

    I always played a good portion of the characters in longer sets, so ended up playing random naturally. now it's my main. to no surprise - I even won a small all-random local tournament. lol

    I'd just love if it would work like it's supposed to, I always get my weak characters and never my stronger ones (and this is not perception based). tho, that also led to the fact that former weak characters do just fine now. x)
    我道
  • eltroubleeltrouble Joined: Posts: 5,531 ✭✭✭✭
    Dude, just close your eyes, move your arcade stick around and select a character, then hold up or down and randomly press a button to select an ultra. Tada. You've just figured out the original way to do random select.
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    Dude, just close your eyes, move your arcade stick around and select a character, then hold up or down and randomly press a button to select an ultra. Tada. You've just figured out the original way to do random select.
    that strips the "I beat you with random"-feeling tho. and I pick the character, so I can't blame the random button anymore :3
    我道
  • Sp00kyFoxSp00kyFox Joined: Posts: 256
    deal with it, IT'S MARVEL BA... oh wait. wrong game: fix that broken shit capcom!!!11
    inb4: super street fighter 4 random arcade edition v2013
  • LoyalSolLoyalSol Baton Rouge, Lousiana Joined: Posts: 5,403 mod
    I got the 2nd time in my life 5 times IN A ROW Viper with ultra 2.
    That is a chance of 1/(78^5). It's unlikely you'll ever get that in your entire life, I got it TWICE already, and another 4 times streak with another character.

    I play random exclusively, and my character statistic shows not a equal usage AT ALL. the random button is everything, but not "random". wonder how that damn thing works.

    This is a misconception of probability and is a common mistake by those inexperienced in actual probability. In fact one of the rules of randomness is you actually expect streaks to happen!

    You are right the chances of getting Viper with U2 5 times in a row is that number.....for a sample size of 5. But this is not happening in a vacuum!

    Let's say for the sake of simplicity there is a 1/10 chance of getting Viper with U2. The chance of getting her 5 times in a row out of 5 attempts is 1/10^5 or 1 out of 100000, but out of 6 attempts the chance of getting 5 in a row changes. Why is this? The number of permutations that give 5 in a row changes

    H=Getting Viper
    T= Getting someone else

    HHHHHT
    THHHHH
    HHHHHH

    We see there is now three arrangements that gives 5 in a row. The chance of getting 5 out of 6 is 18/10^6 and the chance of getting all 6 is 1/10^6 so the total chance is actually 1.9 out of 100000 or almost double the chance (1 out of 50,000).

    The math gets complicated fast, but suffice to say if you do something long enough you are bound to find a streak eventually. In fact did you guys know one of the ways people can tell a set of numbers is not randomly generated is by the ABSENCE OF STREAKS! Because probability dictates that eventually by random chance streaks happen.

    So

    Streak happening != Lack of randomness

    That is a very common myth. You would have to do a much longer trial to show that the random numbers are not random.
    Under stress you will not rise to your expectations, you will fall to your level of training.
  • Huggy BearHuggy Bear Scoops Häagen-Dazs® Joined: Posts: 1,875 ✭✭✭✭
    :rofl:
    If you don't think it's true I question the knowledge of your own character.

    "Oh, She jumped over my head, time to block the crossu-"

    NOOOPE 260 damage LETS GO
    Logan / Spencer / Gouki

  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    That is a very common myth. You would have to do a much longer trial to show that the random numbers are not random.
    I'm well aware of how you calculate probability, that doesn't change the fact that the probability for that streak is exactly 1/(78^5), which as I stated, is so low that it equals to win 200 times the lottery or be killed 51556 times by lightning (attention, naive examples). and yeah, I got that exact streak twice already, the odds for that... btw, I got the first one when I started playing and rage quit during the 5th match and stopped for a week. I was THAT mindfcked.


    as for "random not being random", I have well over 20k fights with my random account and there are more then a handful of characters that have almost double the uses of others. that is a decent sample size. Might be still not sufficient to use that as a profound disproof, but it doesn't reflect the empirical value of a ~1/39~ spread at all. sadly, ultras selected are not saved, would be interesting if that comes close to 50%.
    我道
  • LoyalSolLoyalSol Baton Rouge, Lousiana Joined: Posts: 5,403 mod
    I'm well aware of how you calculate probability, that doesn't change the fact that the probability for that streak is exactly 1/(78^5), which as I stated, is so low that it equals to win 200 times the lottery or be killed 51556 times by lightning (attention, naive examples). and yeah, I got that exact streak twice already, the odds for that... btw, I got the first one when I started playing and rage quit during the 5th match and stopped for a week. I was THAT mindfcked.


    as for "random not being random", I have well over 20k fights with my random account and there are more then a handful of characters that have almost double the uses of others. that is a decent sample size. Might be still not sufficient to use that as a profound disproof, but it doesn't reflect the empirical value of a ~1/39~ spread at all. sadly, ultras selected are not saved, would be interesting if that comes close to 50%.

    I've had poker hands where I got a royal flush three times in a row. The chance of getting a single royal flush is 1 out of 649740. I'm sure you can imagine how small of a number 1/649740^3 is.

    Just because it isn't probable doesn't mean impossible.
    Under stress you will not rise to your expectations, you will fall to your level of training.
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    I've had poker hands where I got a royal flush three times in a row. The chance of getting a single royal flush is 1 out of 649740. I'm sure you can imagine how small of a number 1/649740^3 is.

    Just because it isn't probable doesn't mean impossible.
    they say you get one royal flush in your life, seems you outta luck now. I got mine already as well. and yeah, chances are unpredictable when it comes to nailing it down to a specific thing... or maybe 2 other guys will now not get a royal flush in their entire life :3

    then again, I'd argue that your dealers didn't shuffle very good.
    我道
  • LoyalSolLoyalSol Baton Rouge, Lousiana Joined: Posts: 5,403 mod
    they say you get one royal flush in your life, seems you outta luck now. I got mine already as well. and yeah, chances are unpredictable when it comes to nailing it down to a specific thing... or maybe 2 other guys will now not get a royal flush in their entire life :3

    then again, I'd argue that your dealers didn't shuffle very good.

    Each royal flush was of a different suit. My friends tried to pull that one on me as it was happening till I pointed out the suits went Hearts, Clubs, Diamonds. There were also three different dealers.

    Just shear luck.
    Under stress you will not rise to your expectations, you will fall to your level of training.
  • David RyanDavid Ryan FightingGamesDaily Joined: Posts: 17
    Best Thing Ever: Choosing Random, and your opponent choosing random, both of you get your strongest character. Just Feels like the stars aligned for this awesome battle or something
    FightingGamesDaily youtube channel(subscribe for weird fighting games from the past and present):
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  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    Best Thing Ever: Choosing Random, and your opponent choosing random, both of you get your strongest character. Just Feels like the stars aligned for this awesome battle or something
    I like when we both get the same characters with the same ultras. or when a new player joins, he picks his main and I get his main with the same ultra (only to be dominated by me! Ò_Ó).
    我道
  • m16ghostm16ghost Joined: Posts: 1,802 ✭✭✭
    I think you misunderstand his point. Yes, the odds of getting that particular streak is low, but in the context of twenty-thousand matches, it's not that remarkable. Furthermore, you weren't looking for that streak, any streak (e.g. 6 Hakan's) would have seemed suspicious to you all the same.


    But if your character distribution is really that far off for 20,000 matches, and you're really that curious, you can run what is called a goodness of fit test to suggest if random select is actually biased.
  • David RyanDavid Ryan FightingGamesDaily Joined: Posts: 17
    I like when we both get the same characters with the same ultras. or when a new player joins, he picks his main and I get his main with the same ultra (only to be dominated by me! Ò_Ó).


    I've seen it happen to me before. worse thing: I pick my main, they pick dan. pummel me. SSFIV i mean
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  • ChewmandingaChewmandinga PSN XBL, UK: Chewmandinga Joined: Posts: 260
    Solution!

    1: Close your eyes, cover your ears, hold the stick in some random directions for a few seconds and pick.

    2: Then do a 360 motion few seconds and press select again.

    3: Hold up or down for a few seconds.

    Result: A Random character with a random costume, colour, taunt and win quote and a mystery Ultra. If you keep you eyes closed until the load screen is over too you get the added bonus of not knowing who you're playing as until the character introductions. Sort of like Mokujin in Tekken.
    Makoto till I die. Or I find another game to play...
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    I've seen it happen to me before. worse thing: I pick my main, they pick dan. pummel me. SSFIV i mean
    well I play it exclusively so I have way more chances of getting something like that. After a few rounds. some player play random as well - I tell you there is nothing more enjoyable in ANY game then random ranbats.
    I think you misunderstand his point. Yes, the odds of getting that particular streak is low, but in the context of twenty-thousand matches, it's not that remarkable. Furthermore, you weren't looking for that streak, any streak (e.g. 6 Hakan's) would have seemed suspicious to you all the same.


    But if your character distribution is really that far off for 20,000 matches, and you're really that curious, you can run what is called a goodness of fit test to suggest if random select is actually biased.
    I were looking for that streak tho (somewhat), as it's the one that pisses me off the most - and I got that twice, and uncountable often 2 or 3 times or with switched ultras. even playing 10 matches and getting viper trice even not in a row pisses me off. It seems I only get viper, ibuki, yun or oni everytime I play. god, I hate oni - I get him the most by far - but never in a row. then again, oni, anyone, oni, anyone, oni seems like a common scheme that has the random button in stock, to torture me. I'dn't mind a streak of 5 of a character I like to play, but that HAS NOT HAPPEN AS OF YET. not even in a row of three.

    just comparing the usages makes it obvious that it's not equal - at least in my case. tho, I'd like to know how this random button works, whether it's true random (doubtful) or bound to a starting value and which method/algorithm is used.
    我道
  • piskooooopiskooooo anime swag Joined: Posts: 4,386 ✭✭✭✭
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    I always get Viper w/ Ultra 2 too...
    scientific proof brought.

    I rest my case. :D
    我道
  • LoyalSolLoyalSol Baton Rouge, Lousiana Joined: Posts: 5,403 mod
    just comparing the usages makes it obvious that it's not equal - at least in my case. tho, I'd like to know how this random button works, whether it's true random (doubtful) or bound to a starting value and which method/algorithm is used.

    There is no such thing as true random in computers, but generally for the purposes of something like a random select you would not see the numbers repeat in normal usage (hell even in abnormal usage).

    If the seed was the same you would see the same character every time you boot up the xbox or if you wiped the memory it would always start with the same character. Typically they use something that changes frequently to seed the random generator such as the current time on the system clock.

    I actually just ran a computer simulation and found streaks of 5 can happen in a set of randomly generated numbers between 1 and 100 (Even worse chances than 1/78) though the expected streak is about 2-3.
    Under stress you will not rise to your expectations, you will fall to your level of training.
  • Killer_JigglypuffKiller_Jigglypuff Karakusa is cheap Joined: Posts: 6,640 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I always get Viper U2 on random select also.

    This is so weird.
    Student of the Rindou-Kan
  • FoolinfectionFoolinfection Big fish in a little pond 4 LIFE Joined: Posts: 1,060 ✭✭✭
    Odd. My copy of the game always seem to pick Cody U2 and Dhalsim U1 when Random is selected.
    Welcome to the internet. God help you if you have an opinion.

    I should start keeping written letters in sealed envelopes when I go to tournaments. If i get bodied, I give them one, and when they open it up it says "fuk u"

  • MachoRhombusMachoRhombus Joined: Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭✭✭
    U2 Viper, U2 Dan and U1 Makoto here.
    XBL: PenguinShivers

    TLC Shivers.
  • Sp00kyFoxSp00kyFox Joined: Posts: 256
    There is no such thing as true random in computers...
    actually there is, but that requires an extra hardware module which contains some physical true random effect like atomic decay. that can be used to produce true random numbers even in computers. but it's hardly ever practical.
  • LoyalSolLoyalSol Baton Rouge, Lousiana Joined: Posts: 5,403 mod
    actually there is, but that requires an extra hardware module which contains some physical true random effect like atomic decay. that can be used to produce true random numbers even in computers. but it's hardly ever practical.

    But then it isn't the computer being random, it is the atom decay that is random and the computer is simply measuring it.
    Under stress you will not rise to your expectations, you will fall to your level of training.
  • Sp00kyFoxSp00kyFox Joined: Posts: 256
    who says that atomic decay can't be a part of the computer like a graphic card?
    at the end of the day your whole computer is just a compilation of different components.

    just wanted to say that it's not impossible for a computer. on the algorithmic side you are of course right. there is no function which can produce true random sequences.
  • petran79petran79 Here comes an old challenger Joined: Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭
    This is a misconception of probability and is a common mistake by those inexperienced in actual probability. In fact one of the rules of randomness is you actually expect streaks to happen!

    You are right the chances of getting Viper with U2 5 times in a row is that number.....for a sample size of 5. But this is not happening in a vacuum!

    Let's say for the sake of simplicity there is a 1/10 chance of getting Viper with U2. The chance of getting her 5 times in a row out of 5 attempts is 1/10^5 or 1 out of 100000, but out of 6 attempts the chance of getting 5 in a row changes. Why is this? The number of permutations that give 5 in a row changes

    H=Getting Viper
    T= Getting someone else

    HHHHHT
    THHHHH
    HHHHHH

    We see there is now three arrangements that gives 5 in a row. The chance of getting 5 out of 6 is 18/10^6 and the chance of getting all 6 is 1/10^6 so the total chance is actually 1.9 out of 100000 or almost double the chance (1 out of 50,000).

    The math gets complicated fast, but suffice to say if you do something long enough you are bound to find a streak eventually. In fact did you guys know one of the ways people can tell a set of numbers is not randomly generated is by the ABSENCE OF STREAKS! Because probability dictates that eventually by random chance streaks happen.

    So

    Streak happening != Lack of randomness

    That is a very common myth. You would have to do a much longer trial to show that the random numbers are not random.


    I think rather that the Capcom programmers were too lazy to add a decent algorithm for the random feature
    not good at any, mediocre at many
  • traxustraxus Joined: Posts: 230 ✭✭
    I mainly play random select online as well, and I very, very frequently get the same same character/ultra back to back (to back), which should obviously be pretty rare, but it's actually extremely common

    I've always assumed it's some kind of bug.
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    U2 Viper, U2 Dan and U1 Makoto here.
    I always get Viper U2 on random select also.

    This is so weird.
    it all adds up!
    我道
  • zUkUuzUkUu Theory Pro Joined: Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭
    HAHAHAHHAHA

    I just started playing, and I hovered over random, and waited a bit since I thought, maybe the character gets picked depending on the time you take to select or something, and after 5 seconds, which MILF face saw I on the loading screen? Viper with U2.

    Something in me died.
    我道
  • NecrotrophicNecrotrophic キコケン Joined: Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭
    Machines cant produce anything thats truly random.

    randomness isnt always equal, its possible to flip a coin 100 times and only get tails
    Xbox live, GFWL and GGPO:Necrotrophic
    Chun Li (SF4, ST, 3s), Akuma (SF4), Ryu (SF4,ST, 3s), Cammy (SF4, ST)
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  • VulpesVulpes No. Joined: Posts: 3,677 ✭✭✭
    Machines cant produce anything thats truly random.
    Nothing can produce anything that's truly random ;)
    Why.
  • Sp00kyFoxSp00kyFox Joined: Posts: 256
    Machines cant produce anything thats truly random.
    randomness isnt always equal, its possible to flip a coin 100 times and only get tails
    thats why you have pseudo random number generators which will ensure many aritifical features like avoiding unusal events (like 100 times tails in a row) or making sure that in an arbitrary subsequence of fixed length the count of every number is equal.
    Nothing can produce anything that's truly random ;)
    there are many phenomena in quantum physics which are truly random. if you measure and quantify these effects.. voila, true random numbers.
    so, never say never ;)
  • SinekyreSinekyre Joined: Posts: 70
    Humans excel at Memory and Pattern Recognition.

    People with developed pattern recognition often see patterns where there are none. Schizophrenia is a good example of pattern recognition run amok, and is more likely to affect exceptionally intelligent individuals. People with retarded pattern recognition are often thought of as naive and slow, and are the last to suspect that they're being tricked. Most people are somewhere in between.

    Your brain is seeing patterns where there are none. This also happens to pot smokers.
    In a hundred years, everything is forgotten. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXr2iAQTMo0
  • sorrowsticksorrowstick Joined: Posts: 253
    I came into this thread hoping you would be talking about how Cammy, Akuma, Seth etc are broken characters because they are based on luck instead of skill (In a ratio of majority)

    Damn ;(
    fuck this character prejudice...luck / random is part of the game. deal with it~!!


    zUkUu said:
    I got the 2nd time in my life 5 times IN A ROW Viper with ultra 2.
    That is a chance of 1/(78^5). It's unlikely you'll ever get that in your entire life, I got it TWICE already, and another 4 times streak with another character.

    I play random exclusively, and my character statistic shows not a equal usage AT ALL. the random button is everything, but not "random". wonder how that damn thing works.
    it happens to me ..... i got trash (viper and dhalsim) 5times in a row. And i never got cody in roulette selection for my entire life~!
    Stop trying to make problems out of things that don't even need to be made problems out of.

    Just pick a damn main, voila. :coffee:
    some people never respect of roulette game....oh well. life..
    trollfighting, guessing game, random mash & taunting are legit...offline or online.
  • LordFenrirLordFenrir Tiger!!! Joined: Posts: 10
    Capcom is trying to shove Viper down our throats for a long time, i also noticed this when i choose random.
    [SIZE=11px]while (true) { !enemy.isJumping() ? Tiger() : TigerUppercut() ; }[/SIZE]
  • ilitiritilitirit Joined: Posts: 5,219 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Random is actually broken.  The seed is not updated enough.  You can fix it on the PC version by updating a byte in the EXE.  But having said that, I'm not sure if random character selection relies on the same routine (I can't see why it wouldn't...)
  • sorrowsticksorrowstick Joined: Posts: 253
    ilitirit said:
    Random is actually broken.  The seed is not updated enough.  You can fix it on the PC version by updating a byte in the EXE.  But having said that, I'm not sure if random character selection relies on the same routine (I can't see why it wouldn't...)
    how do you fix ,exe for roulette/random selector? sorry for noobie question...tq
    trollfighting, guessing game, random mash & taunting are legit...offline or online.
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