You can counter the fireball by walking forward and poking (see 6m12s - it's no coincidence that you did better this round). To maintain the "safe" space he will need to walk backwards. This is my point. Don't be afraid of the ground game.That's not why I jump. My jump is to counter to his fireball.
I think you should change your mindset. You don't need to try to react or predict everything. You don't need to try to whiff punish everything. Sometimes it's better just to try to prevent things from happening in the first place ("prevention is better than cure"). If you are just trying to predict a fireball, then you are doing nothing to prevent that fireball. Controlling the horizontal space with your pokes is a better deterrent (in this case), even if the pokes are blocked. As I said, he will either need to adjust his spacing (by walking backwards), jump, or challenge you in footsies."When you are trying to whiff punish, you shouldn't be trying to react to a move, you should be predicting it." I tried to be one step ahead and just do it. I coulden't fireball back because it comes out to slow and I get stuffed. That is why I I'm so far to fireball.