I lack experience in that matchup but I guess you gotta at some point risk a rising jag to keep him honest especially if he gets confortable. Of course he could be watching your meter to see if you’re loaded and become more passive, it’s a guess. Are you sure c.lp doesn’t work? You can lp~lk to OS tech.
Couple things in the lab:
The tier thread got me motivated to search again and I found one safejump against shotos. Well, it works but someone needs to find an easier setup.
It goes: Forward throw, wait a couple frames, walk forward a little and hit with j.mp tip. If you space and time it right all dragon punches will whiff. As an added bonus they can’t FADC either. They can’t crouch under it and are forced to block or backdash.
I haven’t found any easy timing for it, like doin a normal then jumping or whathever so it’s very hard now. If you can find one go ahead. There might be other setups too.
Speaking of j.mp, it really has nice reach, the best of all adon jumping normals, and a lot of characters can’t duck it. It might be more useful than I tought, I think a couple characters have trouble anti airing it too at the max range. Plus it could be useful for hitting recovering fireballers.
Another thing: I’m not sure how many adons know this but against shoto sized characters, MK rising jag hits crouchers better than LK. In the crossup j.MK, light, light xx rising jag combo you can substitute the LK RJ for MK if you see them crouching. On standing opponents, MK will sometimes whiff after that combo depending where you land so I wouldn’t do it. Also, LK gives better oki than MK.