Inc. long post, bored tonight so going through all the characters.
Abel - Ultra 2: you’re always going to use safe jumps on him O.Sing throws for the most part so you can easily condition him to ex tornado on those wake-ups, it remains a legitimate reversal threat throughout the entire match, the longer your set goes on the more in his head you should be, and being that he’s Abel you’ll need that advantage since he’s definitely gonna be in your’s due to abels ability to do whatever he wants on your wakeup.
Adon - Ultra 2: Self explainatory punishment, definitely has the ability to limit his options severely at many ranges.
Akuma - Ultra 1: the ONLY shoto i don’t typically use ultra 2 against due to extreme BS ability to cancel any normal into a demon elimitating half of my setups and never letting me close out a round with U2.
Balrog - Ultra 2, usually, ultra 1 if i know them to be extremely defensive non-risk takers: Ultra 2 punishes non-spaced TAPs and once he starts using them at a “safe” range you can psychic neutral jump them for huge punishes, also useful for empty safe jump gimmcks if they prefer to use ex dashes up wakeup. if they’re defensive players i just combo into u1 or reaction dash punches.
Blanka - Ultra 1: block any blanka ball in the corner, he eats and ultra, also you can option select it in the corner to beat the rainbow ball, and most importantly, when are you going to ultra 2 blanka?
C. Viper - Ultra 1: she has ENTIRELY too many options for me to do anything but take an ultra i can combo into.
Cammy - Ultra 2: punishes bad dive kicks, blows up counter hit happy players, punishes almost every drill, and pretty much completely changes the matchup in your favor.
Chun Li - Ultra 1: since EVERYTHING SHE DOES LEAVES HER AT FRAME ADVANTAGE, HAS MASSIVE RANGE, AND YOU CANNOT EVEN MASH OUT OF HER FOCUS ATTACK, ultra 2 is useless in this matchup imo. use the blanka ball corner O.S. to beat ex SBKs in the corner as well.
Cody - tosx up, i don’t have a setup that’s reliable against cody for ultra 2 minus mashing it out during their button pressing frenzies, but reacting to cody’s specials is fairly easy for u1 at predictable ranges, really depends on who i’m fighting really.
Dan - Ultra 2: punishes every single dan kick, see one come out start mashing and laugh at his ridiculously limited options.
Dee Jay - Ultra 1: can punish all of his sabot kicks with s.mp to ez hozanto and i typically have very little trouble pushing him to the corner, by far my most landed ultra 1 match up.
Dhalsim - Ultra 1: i don’t see u2 as viable at all and every combo in the corner will likely end in this, helps you seal the deal since you likely have an ultra up by the time you have him cornered.
Dudley - Ultra 2: Even with this ultra dudley players just DO NOT RESPECT THE WAKEUP, it probably also helps that people see my rank and go “he’s got lotsa points he won’t mash out an ultra on wakeup” too bad for them i don’t mash it out i just buffered it and press it if i see any movement next to me that doesn’t have him dashing backwards.
E. Honda - Ultra 1: standard combo into it scenario for me here as honda is typically never in ultra 2 range and if you catch him pressing a button it’s a headbutt anyway and you’re just getting hit out of U2.
El Fuerte - Ultra 2: deters them from going for slides on your wakeup incresing your chance of outplaying them(read, guessing) on your wakeup by dashing forward. also el fuertes LOVE to ex run on their wakeup, time it properly and turn one early game knockdown and 5 bad guesses into an even matchup.
E. Ryu - Ultra 2: punishes all axe kicks, enough said basically.
Gen - Ultra 1: gen’s spacing tools are entirely too good for ultra 2 to be viable imo, same as above basically.
Gouken - Ultra 2: beats the predictable palm fadc throw, baited parries off empty safejumps, you get 2 seconds to walk up and prepare to use it if he whiffs an ex tatsu, this match is basically guess work on his wakeup so you may as well get a hueg payoff for guessing right.
Guile - Ultra 1: you can’t really attack guile unless he’s in the corner anyway, and if you catch him c.RHing you get a free ultra from any distance. guiles also tend to flash kick anytime i’m not safe jumping their wakeup so i don’t see a viable way to land ultra 2.
Guy - Ultra 2: decimates your ability to apply safe pressure once you have it, play footsies or be damn good at reading your opponent once this ultra comes into play.
Hakan - Ultra 2: anytime a hakan Oil focus attacks me i start mashing on this thing and almost 100% of the time they get caught, probably wouldn’t work too well in an offline setting as people would hear the mashing. otherwise it’s very good to use it post bushin flip blocked elbow or a slight delay after a landed run overhead.
Ibuki - Ultra 1: Combo usage and you can capitalize on their habit of using non-short chip kicks(i forget what the hell they’re called, that thing they spam every combo).
Juri - Ultra 1: Spacing in this matchup is a nightmare and too many of her normals make her airborne for me to want to commit to ultra 2s. surprise ex hozantos are effective this matchup for me so landing the ultra comes just as fast.
Ken - Ultra 2: beats ambigious empty jumps, punishes blocked tatsus(RH tatsu on hit is also punished by this!) makes them afraid to followup after ex tatsu with anything but DP or jump away, c.mk to fireball can be focused through and ultraed, basically an option limiting ultra matchup.
M. Bison - Ultra 2: EX run gimmick ahoy! also lets you confidently push buttons after blocked ex. psycho crushers.
Makoto - Player specific, blind match Ultra 2: standard gameplan here acrossed the board, this is another guess what to do match up for me due to ex. grab, and makotos like to mash on that when pressured and makes them think twice about going for grabs ever.
Oni - Ultra 2: turns you into zangief whenever you have it so they can’t chop you anymore, severely limits their pressure and turns it into a footsies matchup, and while oni has the better footsies his long range normals are quite slow and quite focusable.
Rose - Ultra 1: complete footsies matchup, they tend to backdash alot and cl. mk your wakeup, both negate ultra 2 quite handily without much thought on their part. find their drill distance and s.mp that into punishes.
Rufus - Ultra 1: I don’t even have a good reason for this honestly, rufus randoms the hell out of me and i do not believe there is a safe move he has that is made punishable by the existance of U2. Typical combo into it matchup for me.
Ryu - Player specific : both ultras are very useful against certain playstyles, ryu has a very telegraphable safe jump off his c.rh and many comboes end in it so ultra 2 craps on those, beats dp FADCs and those are easy to bait, and you can focus his c.mk > fireball and ultra it, conversely ultra 1 punishes blocked c.rh, goes through c.mk to ex fireball making him never wanna press a button after it, and combos. pick your favorite.
Sagat - Ultra 2: Sagats are needlessly aggressive alot and this punishes alot of badly spaced knees, also run slide empty neutral jump to ultra 2 for some reason catches sagats almost all the time. this is more of a anti-player habit than anti character ultra choice, but i stand by it.
Sakura - Ultra 2: basically i mash out of their pressure, I’m a scrub i know but i don’t like characters who can safe pressure me non-stop while dealing chip.
Seth - Ultra 1: this match almost ALWAYS finds its way to the corner one way or another. and every seth is completely different so i typically can’t find a spot to confidentally believe they are pressing a button i can catch with u2.
T. Hawk - Ultra 1: footsies matchup for me, i’m too much of a coward to go in close to frame trap t.hawk into ultra 2
Vega - Ultra 1: same as above except he’s the coward in this case.
Yang - Ultra 2: yangs love to burn their meter into safe pressure, this makes them think twice…
Yun - Ultra 2: Dash punch deterrent.
Zangief - Ultra 3: Pick a different character. (i use ultra 1 really)