Am I too good, or just bad, or over thinking?

Okay, sorry if this is in the wrong place, I don’t think it is a complete noob question and belongs in the noobie thread.
Here is the deal, as I stated, am I too good, or just bad, I know this sounds like an odd question so let me explain my self.

I mostly play on XBL. When facing somebody for the first time, if I get put into a combo, as soon as they put me into the air, I will mash 360 on my stick and mash S. On account of I have no idea how they play, how they will ariel exchange, or if they will even do it at all. If they Ariel exchange up, the next time I am caught, I will guess either left, right, or down. I do not input up. Why? Because they already did it. I think to my self what I think they are thinking. “Okay he is thinking I went up, so hes going to be expecting me to go up, so Im going to go in the other three directions” then they ariel exchange up again.

Another example is with my magneto. I usually approach with a addf H or S. If this gets blocked I think to my self. “Okay he knows I like to go with an overhead, hes going to expect me to go low now, so I will just go high again” This obviously gets blocked.

There are a few more examples, but I’m sure you guys get the general idea now.
So am I just bad? Over thinking? Is it because I am playing online people and 99% of people don’t really learn from their mistakes and are just playing on auto pilot? Or is the problem within me because I am just trying to hard and thinking too much? Or do I just suck at mind games?

Sounds like you’re giving your opponents way too much respect/overthinking.

Why would “Am I too good” be part of this conversation?

And yes, this belongs in the noob section.

You’re not actually reading your opponent, you’re just making assumptions based on what you think they should do. If anything, you’re just playing against your self and not your opponent. You can’t learn someone based on a single act; you can only learn them through trends

Stop trying to go into that Yomi layer 3 shit, keep it simple when playing a random person.

OP what do you do when someone is walking in the same direction as you? Do you have a panic attack?

Because when I asked a RL friend he said, something along the lines of, when you know what your opponent should do, and they don’t do it, because you are better than them, it actually makes you worse. Basically what TaccyP said.

Hahaha, I just have a very active brain, and when I play games my brain goes a million miles a hour.

Thanks for the replies though, I was already pretty sure it was a problem on my part.

Edit: I’m not trying to act like I am some kick-ass marvel player, know it all, saying I know every counter that should be done when something happens.

I would say that you’re over thinking.

Yeah I don’t really know many players who aspire to guess incorrectly on mixups.

You can’t condition people online, especially if you are just playing one-off rank matches. If you are playing sets than I guess that is different, but it usually takes more than going overhead once to mindfuck somebody. You might be overthinking it, but I really just think you need more experience playing, maybe; that will give you a better idea of what rhythm you should be using for mix-ups.

I think you are overthinking a bit, but more importantly you are going about it the wrong way.

You are making assumptions (guessing) at what your opponent is going to be doing and trying to take advantage of the situation. That’s the position you want to be putting you opponent in - you want to force them in to a position where THEY will be the one guessing what YOU will be doing.

In response to your Arial Exchange example: The thing about air exchanges is, they are performed like a combo. Which means that most players go thru a significant amount of training of those combos - which mean habits form. You want to use this to your advantage. If the first exchange they do in a combo is up, and the second was horizontal, then in all likeliness 1 of those 2 inputs is going to be the same when they attempt it again. Because they are performing the same combo that they have performed hundreds of times.

Furthermore, most experienced players wont really need air exchanges - they can do more damage w/o them and not have the risk of it being countered. If a skilled player is using air exchange it means they are doing it for a specific reason (such as building meter for Phoenix) in which case you already know what direction they are going to do.

In response to your Mag example: as mentioned earlier, your in the position you want your opponent to be in. You want to be controlling him and making him guess, rather than guessing yourself. You do this by repeating the same action when it’s safe. Go high twice or 3 times. Let them get comfortable. If they block correctly they will feel like they are reading you and have the advantage so when you do it again - you go low and it goes thru because they got too comfortable. If they DONT block correctly on those 2 or 3 attempts, you can bet your ass that they will block that way next time (if they remember) so that they dont get hit again.

Dont spend so much time thinking about your own actions, control their actions.

Of course, as mentioned by others, this isnt as effective in Ranked as it’s just one match and you don’t really get to adjust to other peoples habits. But if you play a few times with people you can start using these strategies. The best way to improve at them is find someone to practice with where BOTH of you are 100% open with eachother. Most people who play with eachother comment about the wins or losses - but their competitive side takes hold and they only tell the other people what is neccessary. If you have a training partner that will tell you what you did that worked, what didnt work, where they missed up, what they thought when u attempted your mixup’s - you will be able to improve your game immensely. Because you are both getting better at countering eachother, and pushing eachother to the limits further and further.

Thank you everyone for your replies, and a big thanks to Spyridon for going into detail, I will remember your advice and try to use it when playing with people I know.

If you were too good, you wouldn’t need to ask any questions. If others play auto pilot then if anything your not learning from your matches if your not winning them quickly.

I think you should play like this.

Strategy 1 ( Mid ) > anticipated? > Strategy 2 ( Advanced )
…|------- > good? > stay on Strategy 1
…|------- > easier than you think? > Strategy 3 ( more risk, more reward ) > still overwhelming? > Autopilot

Should be more complex, but this probably will do.