Both matches are tough but you can win both of them. According to Arcadia charts (Japanese tier ranking charts) both matches are 6-4 in the other character’s favor. Meaning at most you are only disadvantaged in both matches. Not severely disadvantaged or hopeless like other characters. Luckily in 3rd Strike just being disadvantaged doesn’t mean you can’t win. Even being severely disadvantaged doesn’t mean you can’t win either. It’s just tough at that point. Even past the official matchup ratio you should be more worried about what you need to do to win than how you are statistically placed.
Not going to go into a ton of detail since it’s early in the morning and I’m just lazy. In the Chun matchup ideally you should take your time in the match. Unless you know yourself and know you’ll get an early lead just by playing auto pilot you want to get a feel for the way the Chun player is using her pokes. Chun ducks under a lot of your jab strings but you really dont need them to win vs. Chun any ways. Your c.MK is just as good as her’s minus the fact that you can’t combo into super afterwards. You can still use poke strings like c.LK>c.MK, c.LK>c.LK>c.HK, c.LK>s.MK>qcb+MK etc. Your main pokes in this match are going to be c.MK, c.LK, s.MK, f+MK and f+HK.
c.LK is just good for spacing and when close you can string into raida or qcb+MK. c.MK because it has good priority and it just works for spacing. f+HK is good because it goes under c.MK and beats out early b+HP attempts. Good for baiting one of her pokes to parry and punish. s.MK because this should be your main normal against pretty much any character as far as setting up combos. Must be parried high and hits crouching opponents. Good priority and goes into anything. Main idea is to walk up to Chun Li and option select parry and throw out s.MK or c.MK. If you parry something follow up with s.MK to whatever. f+MK will probably be your most used normal though simply because it’s tough for Chun to punish unless she has meter and it allows you to hop over her c.MK and hit her over her head. Even when parried unless you’re right next to her she has to quickly cancel c.LP to super to punish your f+MK. Which means before she has meter this is going to be a good move to get you in towards her.
You still want to try and buy time in this matchup. Get a couple hits in when you can but otherwise dont pressure unnecessarily. Jump straight up and throw kunais to bait out pokes. Especially once you get meter EX kunais are great for jumping in on her and playing mind games. Just buy time when you need to but ultimately you should be looking to get knockdowns because she’s a lot less of a threat when her butt is on the ground. You have plenty of normals that stuff out EX SBK and EX lightning legs may push you away but does crap for damage and can still be meatied out or baited and blocked. Apply pressure with kunais and poke strings and throw her just about every chance you get. She loses momentum once you get her grounded.
**Makoto **is tough not necessarily because of what she can do but how quickly one right guess of hers can end you. I mean you can poke back and forth with her and like Chun Li…she runs into problems once you knock her on the ground. It’s just you can be doing a ton of work and one mistake can either even the round or completely lose you the round. You just have to play solid and can’t be afraid of what she can do. You just have to make yourself comfortable with fighting her.
Your main pokes are going to be everything that was mentioned vs. Chun Li. I wouldn’t necessarily run LP chains on her though since she can duck under them. If you can catch her while she’s standing then go for it. Otherwise try to connect things off s.MK. I really like f+MK vs. Mak simply because it keeps you airborne without having to actually jump. Makoto wants you either laying on the ground or on your 2 feet because that gives her the best opportunity to grab you. f+MK is safe on block and even on parry unless you do it right next to her and she parries it. Dont want to over abuse this obviously since Mak is just looking for you to start telegraphing stuff and then she dashes up during the recovery and punishes you. Mix things up with other pokes as well. Just dont get grabbed is the main thing. Look to throw her if she tries to get near you since that’s the quickest thing you can do to put her on the ground and stop her from grabbing you. Use s.MK to punish blocked hayates (non EX) and combo into whatever you like. If you hit Makoto with s.MK while she is crouching you can combo into EX qcb+K for good damage and knockdown. Remember to switch to low sweeps after first 2 spin kicks or otherwise it wont combo.
Good Makoto players are usually gonna use her SA1 vs. you since that gives them more options for landing a super on you. Ibuki moves around a lot so it’s tough to get her in a good position for SA2. If they do use SA2 limit your jumps and pokes once she has a super. Stick mainly to just walking back and forth and looking to punish any mistakes she may make. She’s just waiting to jump up in the air and land that super on you so if you have to take a combo it’s better than getting supered because you jumped or threw a poke at a bad time. You can use kunais to throw off the landing of your jumps like in the Chun Li match making it tough for her to guess when you’ll land. Generally as long as Makoto doesn’t have super you should have initiative to pressure her once you knock her down. Staight up jump and coming down with kunais or j.HP is good for mind games.
If you are not going to jump make sure whatever you are going to do is quick and comes out before she can decide to karakusa you. Especially if she’s using SA2. You’re better off leaving her alone if she’s using SA2 when she’s in the corner. If she’s using SA1 try to pressure her with jump ins and some poke strings. Generally a good idea to jump straight up once she has meter. It’s tougher for her to land the super when you’re airborne and you can mix things up with air chains or kunais to bait her to throw super at an inopportune time. If you can get Mak to whiff SA1 you can pretty much take control of the match from there. Especially if you already did damage before then.