as a sagat player, hit confirming is my biggest gripe. I have about 1000000000000 other ways to land ultra 100% free, no need to risk it. Plus, like others said, if you land the jump in, you get a free combo. You can switch up to a bread and butter for your character into ultra at that point anyway. Or, just land a combo for massive damage, get the health lead and save that ultra for when you have the bars to cancel or use it in a different way.
Reason being even if you could land let’s say a semi charged ultra without using meter cuz of a jump in, you’re gonna do damage, but not the full potential. It really depends on your health, the timer, and your opponents bars and his health as well. Landing that ultra earlier in the match guarantees that your opponent will now have ultra, and some free ex meter and you will have no ultra left at that point. That ends up limiting your options making you easier to read.
If you can land a serious damage combo anyway and the ultra wasn’t going to end the match, you can do that as well depending on your character. Consider when you have ultra with certain guys, your opponent might have to change the way they play in your favor anyway, then once you get the safety of those 2 bars for cancel you are an even bigger threat, regardless if you even need to land the ultra or not, people who mind meter will notice your safety bars and play differently. The more options you eliminate the easier it is to read your opponent and punish them accordingly…
but to sum it all up, it doesn’t really matter, do what works for you. There’s no right or wrong answer