You have to watch the opponent, and see what they’re likely to do. It’s generic advice, but for the all-important wakeup segment it is amongst the most important things. People have certain things that they like to fall back on when they have to make important decisions quickly, and identifying those as quickly as possible Can and Will win you the match, ESPECIALLY with Makoto. When you’re “crowding the corpse”, so to speak, there are really only 2 things that should happen:
A) They get karakusa’d
B) You block
Either they’re going to get grabbed, or you’re going to bait them out so they can get grabbed. That’s all. This of course isn’t literal, by “being grabbed” I mean ticks and such as well. But they know it’s their ass if they don’t figure out something to do quick. So the first few times, wait a sec to see what they do immediately on wakeup. After that, plan accordingly and bait out or go immediately for the pressure. Many times people are more prone to pattern than the CPU.
Also: Make use of the range advantage Karakusa has over normal throws. When you’re baiting, stand inside karakusa range but outside their throw range. Just one more thing to remove their options.