This matchup is 7-3 by principle, nothing Dictator can do in this matchup that Guile cant counter appropriatly. the 3 in the matchup is purly for human errors, and 50/50 situations like teching throws, frame traps, and some dic psycho crusher shaningans after a knockdown. basicly Dictator has to play very risky and be lucky with the meta game.
Guile whole game revolve around his jab booms here.
1-Dictator cant jump jab booms, even if he jumps at the same time or even little before you throw ur boom, because of his floaty jump Guile can antiair it so easily.
2- If Dictator jumps from mid range, Guile can react and air to air with jf.HK.
3- Since Dictator and all of the cast pretty much cant focus dash forward a jab sonic boom or else eats a fierce, he has no options, he cant jump forward to you, cant focus, blocking means getting chipped, neautral jumping something you can react follow the sonic boom with proper anti air punish.
4- All of dictator footsie game gets destroyed with well ranged placed jab booms, he cant press any buttons. you can also use fierce booms here too to mess up his reactions.
5- there is very small range where Dictator can punish booms with ex sciscor, but fortunatly for Guile the move requires charging so you can tell if its coming ingame, and he has pretty much one chance since a blocked boom pushes dictator little away, so whenever he gets to that range and you see him charging, you just step a few steps back and throw the booms again, he cant punish that.
6- Dictator cant play patiently and build meter, his devil reverse shaningans can be punish by guile ex sonic boom from full screen, or cr.fierce from close.
7- If you have no ex, you can still jab boom, wait for the follow up to devil reverse, do a double dash, then focus attack the follow up to a huge damage.
8- If you blocked a LK scisor kick, a reversal boom is so fast, ur worst case is it gets traded which is still in ur favor, if dictator do a lk scisor then a jump in, u can throw the reversal boom and still cr.fierce the jump in, also since AE2012 Dic lk Scisor pushes the opponent away, this matchup mindgame became worse for Dic, you can even jump back after a blocked lk scisor and escapes, you can backdash, you can wait for his normal if he wants to press button after the scisor then reversal jab boom the blocked normal and reset the situation, there is no option select here dictator can do, its just mind game guesses, and that is the only window for dictator to start his offense and win.
9-Dictator can though become “SSF4 Dictator” if first, guile didnt hold his ground well and put himself in the corner, AND second, blocked a lk Scisor, since you are in the corner you cant be pushed away, this is the only situation in the matchup where dictator can have more options than guile since he can follow now the lk scisor with st.hk or cr.lk, both could counterhit punish the reversal boom, he gets safe headstomps, jumping back for u means a little step forward for him and st.hk antiair for dictator, hell even focus dashing a boom and punishing becomes vaiable since he is very close. with that said, if you played the matchup well and had two ex bars by that time, you have the fk fadc option that could help you there, you still have options to man handle dictator in the corner, but it really comes down to skill, plus in general he has more options.
10-last point, this matchup was alot easier before, since Guile did more damage in general, and build up meter alot faster, which helps greatly, now, having to work a little more puts u in more room for errors, that dictator can take advantage of, but this is in no way a 5/5 matchup, and no top japanese dictator users think it is that, or any good dictator in general, at the same time, no strong guile player cannot see the advantage that guile has here.
but in the end, its just a game, and we r humans, mistakes can occur, and these games evolve around mind games, even though the window for it to get started in one matchup differs from the other, dont take losing to a dictator to heart, or get discouraged and feel ashamed. it happens to everyone