How do I predict which direction to counter Aerial Exchange?

When I’m being hit with an aerial exchange, it feels like a crapshoot deciding between three directions in order to stop the combo. Is there an incentive for my opponent to input one direction as opposed to another? Or is it as random as rock paper scissors? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Not exactly sure yet but I think this was the point of the new system, they want it tough to break. I remember before the game coming out people were worried that people could just mash and will break it all the time. This is not true. Yesterday after around 100 matches mine literally got broken ONE time. And I never got the break one either.

I heard that one builds meter one does more damage and 1 mixes between the two or something but I am in Europe so I couldnt confirm until Friday.

Marvel vs Capcom 3/Systems/Air Combos: Aerial Exchange - Shoryuken Wiki, Marvel vs. Capcom 3 Strategy and More!

tl;dr: It’s a blind guess.

Thanks. I guess aerial exchange is cheaper than I thought. Even if someone did counter it 1/3 of the time, it just resets the situation so that no one has an advantage.

aerial+up take the opp. higher, aerial+right/left does a wall bounce, aerial+down does a ground bounce. See “The Ups and Downs of Aerial Exchanges” section in the above link. in my extremely limited amount of play time (at a very low tier level) people seem to trend to up or left/right. i’ve had good success breaking combos by always choosing “up”. Only thing you can do is look for trends in your opponent, ie. they ALWAYS wall bounce you. either that or they just mash (or actually mix up a lot) and you get lucky/unlucky.

I don’t think it’s cheap at all. Don’t want to get put in an aerial exchange? Don’t allow yourself to be put in one.

I would assume most people mash on down tag when putting u in combos because if u dont know how to escape it they get 2 free meters. You get one whole super meter just for doing a successful tag in along with the normal meter u gain. Which means anyone who knows about that will risk taking the tag combo damage so u dont gain nearly 4 meters or more just off a simple combo.

So, is churning butter SSSSSSSSSSSS as effective as all the complainers were worried about? I mean, it’s not like you’ve got to worry about getting reset with the damage output so high on regular combos.
I think I mashed out of one ariel exchange with it, but there are very few people going for it.

I really don’t think you or your opponents are mashing it enough then. I’ve played maybe only a few hours versus people, but I’ve had multiple matches where both me and my opponents countered the aerial exchange several times in a single match, and I know for a fact that I was just mashing randomly through the combo. Another friend of mine said he was mashing 360 SSSSS whenever he got combo’d and was able to counter it roughly 60% of the time.

There really ought to be some kind of safeguard to prevent random mashing on counter, i.e. BB throw reject miss.

getting floor bounced gives them a full bar of meter too…

Random mashing works, but it’s not reliable, and if someone knows you’re mashing they can use it to reset you… which just makes that high damage even higher.