Tactics like the one you described are really easier said than done when you talk about beating them. Before I talk about beating the strat, the best thing you can do is to make that kind of 50/50 not worth it for them. I don’t know what character you play, but what is the most DAMAGING combo you can do whenever you block an uppercut? If your character doesn’t have strong combos without jumping, what are some of the most DEVIOUS wake-up games you can play off of your knockdown of choice? Punish them as hard as you can for guessing wrong – 140 dmg from a throw becomes less threatening if you can take off 350 dmg because they guessed wrong.
There are 2 ways you can be hit by uppercut in this situation: 1, you crouch tech early. 2, you crouch tech late.
You need to be able to tell the difference in-game.
-If you get hit for reason #1, then that means he is uppercutting you as soon as you wake up. If you late crouch tech, you will block the uppercut and still tech the throw. You will be able to punish the uppercut if you block.
–For Ryu, this is High Risk/Medium-Low Reward behavior. He risks taking a LOT of damage for the reward of mediocre damage + another knockdown.
-If you get hit for reason # 2, he is waiting for your late crouch tech before uppercutting. If you are doing early crouch tech, you will hit him for walking forward with a moderately damaging combo.
–For Ryu this is High-Risk/Medium-Low Reward. Same as above, this Ryu is doing high risk behavior. He is risking getting hit by reversal, by early crouch tech into combo for the same reward as above. He is risking less damage to himself, but he is opening up more ways to receive damage at the same time. This is what I would call a “scissors” strategy (Rock < Paper < Scissors) he is putting bets on you not doing anything stupid, and then punishing you for that.
There is 1 reason why you are thrown: You didn’t crouch tech. Sometimes, you just have to take the throw (like if Ryu corners you and he has meter and Ultra). You should at least be trying to visual throw cues, like their arm sticking out, in this situation.