What’s up Ray. Hopefully I can give some good tips about the Makoto matchup as I play it quite a bit with Knuckledust. (ec makoto player) He will generally use SAII because of the damage scaling on SAI against Hugo. This is my experience, and though I’m not as experienced a player, I think it might help out.
The way I play this matchup, is to make the Makoto feel as though dashing won’t work, and to put her in the corner. I also try to make the player fear earthquake bombs/Gigas up close and the clap (option to meat squasher)/overhead/sweep wakeup game because she has no shoryu.
Makoto has only one useful poke that can beat out Hugo’s general clk/clp/cmk/lk in my experience… her low forward will either beat or trade with what I feel are his most important ways to stop her from dashing (the sweep mixed with s/clk) but it will lose clean to the standing mp, his other best tool imo. Other than cmk, Makoto will have a hard time in the poking game and have to rely some on jumping and other ways to mix up besides blind random dashing/karakusa.
I also will try to corner her ASAP despite SAII working best for Makoto in the corner as it is hard to get a stun on Hugo. She also can’t do much in the corner besides a karakusa anyway (beaten by earthquake bomb/gigas) or to jump. She can be setup for ume backbreakers quite easily and controlled in the corner.
I don’t think SAIII works so well in this match because of the tendency of Makoto players to rush a lot of the time… if she is coming to me, and I can stuff her dashes and get meter decently I might as well let her try to hit me and get parry/gigased. I play a defensive Hugo though, based mostly on what I see Hayao do, and I use meat squasher tricks and go for attacks but not as aggressively as I’ve seen Adolfo be.