Without watching any of your matches I’m assuming you’re carefully trying to close the gap by outsmarting your opponent on the ground. I used to do that exclusively.
If that’s the case, sometimes you have to say “Fuck that shit” and go ham. If you play too smart, they’ll have a full stick of butter by the time you get close, leaving you to deal with too many options on their wakeup. If you play too dumb, you’ll get P’d on without even getting a whiff of SPD distance.
Hugo will make up the damage he took getting in off of one mixup. So don’t hoard your life bar. Don’t be afraid to get hit since he has the highest amount of health in the game and he does a shit ton of damage.
Cut off the screen as early as you can. Focus dash, empty jump, Clap, neutral jump HP, whatever to let your opponent know that he’s not getting past you.
I noticed that if I’m moving around with hugo a lot (neutral jumps, leap attacks, claps at neutral, etc) than I can sneak a jump in and make them block. So don’t be afraid to jump. Just don’t do it predictably.