*sorry, these notes are unorganized, i was typing while watching the videos
i think you need to be more patient, especially against sagat.
dodging tiger shots is definitely a skill that needs to be worked on, and is much harder in this game than some people may think. when you focus a tiger shot, dash back and anticipate the next one. because you will be twice as vulnerable. high tiger shots are effective for tagging you as you jump, so look for those and just duck. what you need to know is that when you block or focus, that makes it easy for sagat to continue throwing shots. if you mix in jumps, ducks, and blocks, his timing will get messed up and you will see him whiff a punch or a kick. keep doing this and it turns into a game of patience.
learn to use your normals properly. if he jumps in, anti air with c.fierce or st.strong.
punish with c.strong xx headbutt/dash punch.
don’t do turn punches from full screen because they will whiff. instead, do lp headbutt over fireballs to build meter, or neutral jump/duck so that you will mess up sagat’s fireball timing. depending on the player, they might just continue to throw tiger shots, or they might decide to come get you.
i saw a lot of random headbutts. learn to hit confirm into those with combos like simple bnb combos like c.lp > c.lp > c.lk xx headbutt.
don’t do dash punches from so far away, and especially when you are charging by holding (walking) back, it is easy to anticipate and you will get ultra’d by a good player. try to zone appropriately and charge with d/b. also, use your lp version of the dash punch because it is faster and you can easily catch people who are walking forwards.
it looks like you need some work on zoning and footsies. when you play, try to read your opponent rather than just throwing out headbutts and dash punches and hoping they land. that is kind of what it looks like.
are you using option select throw on wakeup? i think against ryu in the last match, it could have countered some of the shit he was doing to you on wakeup.