In honor of EVO being in Las Vegas, Let's play a little gambling game


#1

Alright folks, EVO is coming up. So let’s play a little game. Everyone gets 100 dollars. I’m going to lay out what I feel are currently the odds on people to WIN EVO. These odds were constructed with some very delicate math work based on tonamento results, previous EVO results and some personal inferences. Also, each person is allowed to place bets on two people they will either place in the top 5 or top 8, top 5 right gives better payout. Of course, at any time, you can choose to predict the entire top 8 or top 8 with correct placings.

So first are what I feel are the odds to win HDR at EVO. If you disagree significantly with any of the odds or if you feel I left someone out, let me know and I will update correctly. I figure this could be a fun little game.

The favorite to win - John Choi at 5 to 2. Why John Choi you ask and not Afrolegends the defending champ? To be honest, even though Choi only plays this game at tournaments, to my knowledge he’s won every HDR event he’s entered. Further, I haven’t heard of Afro playing much lately so mathematically the odds on favorite is Mr. John Choi

Second - Afrolegends. Come on, he’s the defending EVO champ in HDR, can play the entire cast like he’s been maining them for years. The man could not play for five years and whip 95% of people who play this game. He comes in at a solid 7 to 2.

Third - Damdai. The man loves his ST / HDR. He’s been playing around with Ryu but his ability to counterpick has to makes for great tournament ability. He’s a solid number 3 at 6 to 1.

Fourth - Dark Gaiden. His ability to play Ryu is only really surpassed by John Choi. Ryu is the staple of the SF2 cast and is good enough to overcome any of Ryu’s (almost) bad matchups against inferior competition. 8 to 1

Fifth - Alex Valle. As Skisonic once said at MWC, “He’s been playing Ryu for 15,000 years!” And guess what, you play that long, you know your shit, you know all the tricks, all the gimmicks. He’ll be an extremely tough out and I believe he got an EVO seed for taking second at MWC. He’ll make the most of lesser competition in his pool and will likely breeze through to Semis. 10 - 1

Sixth - David Sirlin. He made the game for crying out loud! There’s an argument that can be made that he should be higher, but really he hasn’t done much lately except for continue to defend Fei Long against critics. If he comes to play seriously and win, he could do it. But if he’s still on the board as playing Fei Long just to prove a point, these odds could change. 12 to 1

Seventh - Daigo “The Beast” Umehara. YOU MEAN HE’S NOT HIGHER? Well here’s where maybe the math is stuck with insufficient data. Last year’s EVO was not great for him in HDR. In fairness, he doesn’t play HDR except a couple times a year when he travels state side for tourneys. We know he likes it, but doesn’t play it at home and treats it like ST. But no one can deny his skill or his ability to read oppoents. This could be a real value at 13 to 1.

Eighth - Graham Wolfe. Yes he hates HDR. But if he goes to EVO, do you really expect him not to play? He made top 8 last year, he’s got one of the best boxers on the planet, it would be hard to see a situation if he didn’t play not making it very far and obviously maining a top tier beast always helps. 15 to 1

Ninth - RoyalPhlush. What??? REALLY? That’s what the numbers say. He mains Ryu (good start), has a great game (better start), oh yeah, he WON MWC (which means EVO seed), of course its not confirmed yet that he’s going, but if he does, expect him to breeze to Semis as well. The real question is, could he choke under the bright lights on the biggest stage? He’s not exactly what you would call a tourney vet, and not to mention, having a pad player win a SF event at EVO might make Madcatz execs die… a long shot at 20 to 1.

Tenth - TheloTheGreat. Honda? Top 10 chance to win EVO? Yeah, but even that’s not great. He mains Honda, has bad matchups, will need some luck, but there’s no one who knows how to hold down back better than Thelo Louis Paquin. A long shot at 25 to 1.

The field. Do you think someone other than the names listed above is going to win EVO? The rest of the field still looks damn talents and has enough pull to make some surprises. Think about names not currently on this list, Justin Wong, Sanford Kelly, AfroCole, a whole bunch of players who will make noise who the numbers didn’t give the respect to. I’d give the field 35 to 1 at this time, now with that being said, particularly as names come up I didn’t account for and such, these odds are subject to change at the “betting” takes place like any real game.

Payout for picking the top 8 correctly 50 to 1.

Payout for picking the top 8 correctly in order from 1 to 7 is 150 to 1.

Correctly put two names from the field into top 5, 90 to 1.

Correctly put two names from the field into top 8, 70 to 1.

A couple prop bets for fun.

A double perfect in a top 8 match - 40 to 1

A double perfect in grand finals - 80 to 1

A double double perfect in any top 8 match - 150 to 1

A double double perfect in a grand finals match - 300 to 1

IF THERE IS A BET YOU WANT TO PLACE BUT IS NOT LISTED, SAY PERSON X TO FINISH IN TOP 5 OR HIGHER LET ME KNOW AND I WILL DO THE MATH AND PUT THE ODDS UP.

You can place multiple wagers, you can divide your 100 however you choose. I’ve run so far 12 simulation tournaments expecting about a 200 person entry for HDR at EVO. Using as much information as I can from tonamento results, main characters, our consolidated tier listing from this thread, there’s some surprise results in some of them, so let the betting begin!

FULL DISCLAIMER: THERE IS NO ACTUAL MONEY CHANGING HANDS, THIS IS ALL IMAGINARY. IN COMPLIANCE WITH US FEDERAL LAW I AM OBLIGED TO INFORM YOU THAT ACTUAL MONETARY TRANSACTIONS OVER THE INTERNET FOR GAMBLING PURPOSES ARE ILLEGAL UNDER US FEDERAL CODE. THANK YOU FOR NOT PUTTING ME IN PRISON.


#2

Can I bet on myself? :rofl:

25 to 1, I like those odds!

Also my last name is Paquin, not Pacquin.


#3

Of course you can bet on yourself. That’s what the numbers put your odds at. Interestingly enough your WWL results helped you in the math, your tonamento results helped you in the math, ironically, maining Honda was not a huge net minus for you. So if you wanted to put all 100 on yourself to win and you won, you’d get 2500 in monopoly money! Ironically enough, in one of the 12 simulations I did, there were quite a few upsets and you waltzed into grand finals…

PS. Sorry about the name mixup. I know how to spell your name, I just wasn’t paying attention.

My betting right now would look something like this.

I’d put 35 on John Choi to win. That’s my safety bet. (5 to 2)

I’d put 35 on Daigo to win, that’s my value bet. (13 to 1)

I’d put 10 dollars on a double perfect in a top 8 match, that’s my crazy Vegas bet sure to go wrong (40 to 1)

I’d put my last 20 dollars on the field at 35 to 1 because there’s alot of talent in the field.

I’m also thinking up new prop bets and running the numbers on them from now until EVO so check the OP for updated odds and new bets going up.

If you put down your bets, please put what the current odds are at the time of your betting so I can tally the total winnings and losses per your wagers. Thank you.


#4

Hmm, I’d bet 50 on myself and 50 on Damdai for first place.


#5

So Thelo is in for

50 at 25 - 1 (on self to win)

50 at 6 - 1 (on Damdai to win)


#6

Where’s Snake Eyez in all of this? His 'Gief is pretty impressive.


#7

He’d be in the field. I like his game ALOT. But I haven’t heard that he’s going to EVO officially. Two, he does main Gief and eventually if you play enough bad matchups, I could see him getting stuck. The computer likes him, but not enough to put him into the top 8 primarily because of Gief’s weaknesses, but that’s what I’m talking about with the field. The field is still REALLY DAMN TALENTED.

If you were going to take a bet of two people in the field to crack top 8 him and someone else could make for a good bet if you really like him.


#8

I’m betting 10 bucks on everyone in the top 10.

Smart money management.


#9

50 on AfroLegends (7 to 2)
30 on Daigo (13 to 1)
20 on placing 2 names in top 5 - 1st: AfroLegends, 2nd: John Choi (90 to 1)


#10

I don’t know if the third bet is clear, but you have to put two names from the REST of the field in for that bet. Picking Choi and Legends to make top 5 is not a 90-1 bet.

The field specifically refers to all names not explicitly mentioned in the top ten list


#11

50 on Daigo (13 to 1)

30 on Afro (7 to 2)

10 on Choi (5 to 2)

10 on the field (35 to 1)


#12

Can I lay any of those, or is it just one side?


#13

You have 100.00 make any bets you want. If there’s a bet you want to make but I dont’ have listed, let me know, I’ll do the math and crank out odds for you.


#14

OK.
$100 on Choi not to win.


#15

Really? 100.00 on everybody but John Choi? Well I think that puts you at about 11 to ten lol. I’ll have to check with my friend at the Red Rock if that’s a legal bet in this type of situation. When there’s a field bet in play versus names I’m not sure you can pick the field plus the names against the top… I’ll check on that bet and get back to you.


#16

100 on Damdai to win.


#17

lol when does betting close? i’d like to place my bet as late as possible.


#18

Betting will probably close about a month fron now. Of course as bets come in we’re going to update odds that will reflect for future bets so…


#19

If Choi is 5-2 win, he should be 2-5 not to win. Anything close to 1-1 and I’ll be doing arbitration for a sure win.


#20

Yeah, so you’d get 140 on a 100 bet if John Choi didn’t win. I called my friend at the Red Rock, he’s one of the guys who determines what the spreads are on football games for casino, he’s supposed to get back with me today to let me know if that’s legal in this case. He’s busy with spreads for the NBA finals.