Let my SPD intoxicate you!
This is a walk forward block matchup that requires patience.
You can take away two of Vega’s tools very easily. You can stuff walldives 95% of the time with st.jab, cr.hp, and lariat. Just have to walk forward or walk back and figure out the spacing. If you do block ex wall dive, he is plus on it so block! When he is in claw mode, his best horizontal poke f+hp is a risk. If you block it, you get a free cr.jab. When he has v-trigger you are not allowed to jump. At best he gets free damage, at worst he combos v-trigger to super. Watch for the fast dash and good grab range. Give him a healthy dose of cr.jab on defense.
Using c.lp is good vs Vega, c.mk and sweep are good counter pokes to go under his claw pokes, possibly getting a cc on the sweep. Wall dive loses to st.lp for free and his reversals are terrible, so it’s a risk anytime he tries it. When he has v-trigger, stick to lp and lk for pokes since any whiff punish will lead into a combo.
If you block f+hp, go for a s.mk punish at least; it’s -14 on block and should really be hit even harder than that with st.hk. Punishing with a jab isn’t enough of a deterrent IMO.
I was watching FlashMetroid’s Vega tutorial, here are what I learned.
He can tick throw with claw but not clawless. Clawless normal push you out of throw range. He needs to walk forward to normal throw you.
cr.mk is on block is +2.
His ex grab-dash is plus, just like hp.spd-dash. You have to respect it.
In regard to stance shift, claw to hand on block is minus, you can mash it; hand to claw on block is a frame trap.
Generally I think play a bit lame in this match is good. If you have life lead it’s ok to just sit there and wait he comes to you. Cr. lp shutdown his ground attack and we have strong AA. Don’t use hp or hk too much in neutral game because Vega is a master of whiff punish.