MvC3 First Week and Fiscal Year Sales Predictions


#1

Most of you are already aware Capcom expects 2 million worldwide sales of Marvel vs Capcom 3 by March 31st.

Judging by pre-order numbers, I think Capcom could hit their target.

In America only, current pre-orders are as follows: 115,600 (PS3) and 89,647 (360). Assuming pre-orders grow the same amount they did as the previous week for each console in the final week before release, final pre-order numbers should look something like this:

Final Pre-order Numbers: 135,600 (PS3) and 107,647 (360)

Pre-orders usually only account for half of first week sales, so you generally see about a 100% bump over the pre-order number. This means first week sales should be around: 271,200 (PS3) and 215,294 (360)

Total First Week sales: 486,494

As history shows, the game will drop about -50% in the second week.

Total second week sales: 243,247

Then about -10% in the third week. DLC will help the fourth week’s sales to remain steady without another -10% drop.

Total Third Week Sales: 219,247
Total Fourth Week Sales: 219,247

Then another -10% in the fifth and sixth week.

Total Fifth Week Sales: 198,247
Total Six Week Sales: 179,247

Total U.S. sales by end of fiscal year: 1,545,729

“Give or take” depending on what final pre-order numbers end up being this week.

So, as long as Europe and Japan sales total at least 500,000 in the same 6 weeks period (which is a fair estimate since Marvel vs Capcom was never really popular outside of America) Capcom will hit their target.

That’s my prediction anyway, whats yours?


#2

Well it seems that plenty of people have the game before it’s release, so by that logic:

-2 days times ed by a very rough estimate of 5000 sales, means that by 7 days they’ll have broken the laws of Maths! Huzzah!


#3

Where exactly are you pulling these numbers from?


#4

Yeah, I’m not seeing these anywhere…


#5

These are estimates from VGCHARTZ.com. Here is the link. Final U.S. pre-order numbers before launch:

PS3 Marvel vs. Capcom 3: Fate… 131,882
X360 Marvel vs. Capcom 3: Fate… 103,551

http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/84065/americas-preorders-chart-5-february-2011-test-drive-unlimited-2/


#6

I can’t remember what bird on what shoulder told me, but VGChartz isn’t considered by many to be a credible source. I’m pretty sure they mention somewhere on their site that all they do is make predictions.


#7

http://shoryuken.com/f340/wishlist-speculation-thread-ver-2-a-265637/

Take that there.


#8

I admire someone trying to track this. It’s important for the health of the genre (and the possibility of a MvC4) that this game meet, and hopefully exceed, sales expectations.


#9

^ smart man. use the stickies please.