Tested this somewhat yesterday. Maybe i was doing it wrong, but the best I could accomplish was a trade with fuerte on wakeup, and that was a strict 1 frame timing. Otherwise,splash beat st.hp. What I did exactly was try to beat splash(thats the name right?), both crossup and in-front. Even when st.hp traded, it led to sakura hard knockdown(fuerte air reset), and I was always getting delayed wu too when it traded (because of plinking probably). So it would just be advantage to fuerte.
I think I tested the running jump grab too, and i think sakura still lost (but i didnt really test this as much, and I already forgot those results).
According to these results, I feel like st.hp isn’t really a great option (loses to splash, grab, q bomb). Still seems best option are the vanilla options: forward dash, backdash, neutral/directional jump (hopefully get air reset on splash, or just beat grab attempts). Delayed wakeup could be nice to mix up, since if u can get fuerte to wait to splash it could mean you wakeup cr.hp whatever he tries, or just jump away. (EDIT: Also, wakeup focus)
Is there anything I’m missing regarding escaping fuerte mixups?
Meeting fuerte in the air when he went for running stuff seemed to be good, but i can see good fuertes run-stopping to try to bait a neutral jump, and then grabbing me out of the air. Still a good option tho.