this match SUCKS for ryu. vega and rog are in my opinion ryus WORST matchups. the only way to deal with pokes is to psychic DP them, or stay slightly out of their range and red fireball for a knockdown. once vega is knocked down…the ambiguous HK crossup is what i go for everytime. and i will go for it over and over again as its really ryus only advantage in this matchup. if its blocked, ill follow up with a throw, and if the vega gets wise to that, ill walk in and at the last second, dragon punch the poke attempt. good vegas will jump backwards after a blocked xup attemp and theres really not much you can do there. i also go for alot of light HK into throws, then mixup the light HK to bait the flip kick and then punish with a throw. vegas slide and pokes will whiff during light HKs, but you gotta be close. once they get wise, and stay a bit further back, ill try to make them go for the long range poke and i will immidiately throw the super. this works best when the HK you do before the super fills the meter as it can throw the vega player off since he is less likely to expect it.
as for walldive shenanigans…good luck! once the wall dive crossups begin, its a crap shoot. its very difficult to react in time to the crossups. and half the time, even if you get the reversal DP out, it will whiff and be punished. if the vega player starts doing alot of fakes, then you can throw a slow fireball to punish it…but if he doesnt fake…you are WIDE open. almost everything ryu does in this matchup is risky as hell. nothing is safe it seems. and almost all of ryus gameplan is a guessing game.
im basing this on my matches with baconology, vega uno, and sharizord. i’ve taken some wins from these guys but its a very uphill battle. for the most part…i rely heavily on throws. i’ve even gotten hatemail once from baconology for throwing him the entire match and taking a win from him in ranked. of course the jumping jab works at times but a good vega player wont be so obvious. jumping straight up with light kick works well too since the hitbox is higher and will stuff the throw a bit better.
i can certainly use help as well in this matchup and look forward to the other responses!