Shin Matchup win rate chart

Ok, I was bored and then I wrote down a matchup chart for 3rd strike characters.

I compiled most of it based on personal experience, with some help from vids and forum discussions.
Some characters are not played much here, so I gave a pure guess to some matchups.
I’d like some feedback - ask why did I put that particular match in who’s favor, correct me if you are more experienced. I’d like to make it as accurate as possible, so don’t tell me crap like “Necro owns Chun Li because of the stun combo” :rolleyes:

I’m linking it to the Game-Newton bbs too, hoping to get hints from japanese top players too

I think you scored Gouki a bit high on some of em, but still, good stuff.

On which matches do you think I scored Gouki to high?

Alex vs Oro is closer to 2-8 IMO. It’s like his worst match-up with Chun.

Yun vs Yang is 5-5 or 4-6.

Ok, I’ll take note for the next update. I hardly give an 2-8, 'cause it’s on the edge of “can’t do nothing” and that isn’t the case with Alex vs Chun imho (though I agree it’s a very bad match)… so I’m rating Alex-Oro 3-7 too, unless I’m missing something and you can make me change idea :stuck_out_tongue:

About Yun vs Yang… what does give the edge to Yang? They’re about even at poking and mobility, but in my eyes Yang can’t do much against genei-jin pressure. I suppose you have more experience in the match, so I’d like to know, thanks.

I’d say

Necro vs Yun is 3:7 rather than 4:6.

Necro vs Chun is 3.5:6.5 rather than 4.5:5.5

Remy’s also a tough match up for Necro. Rather than 5:5, 4:6 (Just because Necro can stun Remy easily).

Necro Vs Ryu - 5:5

No one can do much about Genei Jin pressure after Yun activates, but some characters are better than others at pressuring him before he gets meter and locking him down in the corner. These are typically characters with good mobility who can deal decent damage with little to no meter. I can think of only 4 characters that can give Yun consistent trouble right now: Yang, Ken, Makoto and possibly Dudley. The rest aren’t really free wins either, but they’re usually fighting a losing battle by default.

Precisely because the twins’ mobility is about the same, it’s often difficult for Yun to run away and charge meter. So it mostly comes out to fighting without meter, which is what Yang wants because he’s vastly superior at it. Yang’s pokes are better than Yun’s overall because they lead to more damage via (EX) Mantis Slashes. On the other hand, Yun needs full meter if he wants to capitalize on his knockdowns. Aside from GJ, Yang can do everything Yun does, except better. Yang can basically just win this match off a couple of knockdowns because EX Mantis damage is so high. If Yun gets cornered (which he most likely will, because he’s usually trying to run away and get GJ), he’s dead meat because he’s forced to guess every time and nothing short of a red parry will allow him to escape. EX Mantis allows Yang to keep continuous pressure on Yun even when he quick stands, while Yun has nothing comparable. Even when Yun manages to activate GJ, Yang is difficult to juggle and won’t get hit by the regular palm combos making it relatively difficult to score big damage consistently.

I believe it’s arguable whether Yang has the advantage or not, but I really don’t think Yun wins this one. It’s probably even at best, but there are so few good Yang players outside of Japan that people often don’t even realize it. He’s actually a really solid character but his strengths aren’t as glaringly obvious as the top tiers’. I’m not going to argue match-ups further though, it’s just something you start to feel after playing certain matches a lot and not always easy to translate into theory fighter.

(put Yang vs Yun even. Oh, and I’m not underestimating Yang… if you look at the chart, he has very few disadvantages, and not by big margin. He just doesn’t have overwhelming victories like characters who are “ranked” above him, but have worse mismatches. In terms of consistency, he’s very good, solid, balanced character.)

I looked at the Urien part of your chart. ^^

I quite agree with your figures, but some are arguable to me.

Alex-Urien 6-4 and Makoto-Urien 7.5-2.5: both are bad match up for Urien of course, but either you underestimate Alex or you forget that makoto is easy to juggle (and there nice unblockable set ups for her :D). Makoto-Urien 6.5-3.5?

Hugo-Urien 3-7, I think the match up is even worse thant that for Hugo. Maybe 2-8. Hugo can’t get close to Urien, he can’t corner him.

I actually play Alex-Urien quite often… if he gets a knockdown I’m in a big trouble, and he outprioritizes me overall. And the “good” juggles don’t work on him. But, at least, his big size makes him a bigger target, I find him somewhat easy to trap with aegis.
But perhaps I’m just a better player than the Alex I usually fight. I’d give it 6.5-3.5, no more.
About Makoto… yes, she’s easy to juggle… good luck into setting up that. She’s like Alex on steroids, outprioritizes everything, hard to runaway against her since her dash is so fast. If she get’s close, and she’s a good Makoto, Urien can only jump away (that leads to nothing), or guess a random parry (not solid). Urien is killed by post-hayate games and wakup games. And the new 100% stun combo spelled “the end” for Urien :sad:
RX himself said that Urien can manage Alex, but that Makoto is too much for him.
Vs Hugo… I’ll adjust that (I played the match too few times, saw the clear advantage but didn’t want to exagerate)

Hugo/Gouki 2:8?
no way, yes gouki has the advantage but thats too exagerated, id say 3/7. remember that a megaton press or even a moonsault press is almost half bar for gouki. Well Hugo will probably receive too much pressure, sure but if he plays his cards well he might land a couple of pokes = good damage.

Pressure isn’t the only way Gouki can deal with Hugo. He can alswo switch to keepaway/turtling/runaway and Hugo can’t still do much about it.
Of course Gouki has to play very carefully (but he has to be played carefully against everyone, due to his low stamina); that doesn’t change the fact that Hugo has lot of trouble even touching him. And a well played Gouki won’t get be caught by mant throws, much less a SA2 since it doesn’t have much priority. I’d take that to 7.5, at most.

My favorite part is where it says (sucks) next to Q. You should put it in caps with a big “!” after it.

Q vs Akuma is a terrible matchup, no doubt, but if nothing else, you’re gonna land an SAII every once in a while, and when you do you only need to hit Akuma a few more times to win the round. That’s a crappy way to get a victory, but it’s gonna happen more than a few times out of the at least 20 rounds that make up 10 matches. I agree that Q is the worst character in the game, but you make it seem like he’s all by himself down there in the overdrive crap tier. He’s really crappy, but not THAT crappy.

Q needs to land it 2 times in the same match, not some rounds over xx rounds. And it’s really hard, expecially if the opponent is aware and starts to play more safely when Q is charged.

And I really like Q, a lot (one of the best designs ever imho). But truth is truth. Damn Capcom.
If he was at least low mid, I’d play him and only him

Even for ST Akuma, who was super overpowered, the worst anyone fared against him was maybe 1 in win in 10. Q is terrible, and Akuma gives him a terrible matchup, but I think he’s going to win more than 3 times against Akuma in 20 matches. It’s hard to land SAII, for sure, but if nothing else, Q will eventually get something like a lucky parry/block/c&db that can be parlayed into SAII. And remember, when Q gets an SAII, he also gets a free taunt. That round is basically Q’s. Then he gets another two rounds to play, and even if he doesn’t land an SAII, every once in a while he’ll just win one of those rounds anyway.

Anyway, it’s not like I think this matchup should even be 3 to 7. I think it should be 2 to 8, or 2.5 to 7.5 at most. But 1.5 to 8.5 is too much.

Yeah, but this is the Shin matchup win rate chart. (what does that mean anyway?)

a little pun on the word “shin”, which can mean “New” or “true”, with different kanji’s. New, because another one was put on this forum like 2 years ago. True, because I’d like to make it as accurate as possible

@Ultradavid: taking note for the next update


First of all, thanks for making the effort to compile a list of matchups and offering a nice layout for it too.
Looking at the list right now, it’s incredible how little a difference there is between Alex( 14) and Chun-Li (1)

Anyway, just some opnions:

I think Chun-Li has a hard time against Necro because Necro can
keep her out with his c.forward from outside Chun’s Super Range,
not because of the 100% combo. I don’t play Chun though…

Now for Remy, who is my character, I happen to disagree with the Makoto matchup rating. When I first played that matchup against a really good Makoto (@BillyKane: It’s Morning Call, just if you’re wondering :P) it seemed really hard, but actually Remy can keep her out if he just makes NO mistakes.
Makoto’s jump is quite slow, and Remy has got an armada of Anti-Airs, so she really can only approach on the ground.
Remy’s c.forward will help greatly there, as she can’t do anything against it with SAII, unless she parries. I think that’s actually one of the reasons for why Top Makotos often choose SAI against Remy. First, so they can punish a parried c.forward with Hayate, SAI link, and second, because it gives her a Reversal move. Without that, Remy can set her up with LoVs like crazy. I’d say the match is 5-5 or slight advantage for Remy.

vs Twelve, I would say that the match is 6-4 in Twelve’s favour.
If Twelve uses X.F.L.A.T. , then as soon as he gets meter, whenever Twelve airdashes it’s really risky to attempt to throw any LoV. He can RRF him still though. Twelve can walk under High LoVs too, and punish them with the EX N.D.L. if he anticipates.
He can run away from Remy quite effectively, but if he gets catched, he hasn’t got a “get off me” move.

vs Ken is 5-5. Remy is about 15 x harder to play then Ken, that’s the main reason why many people think that this is in Ken’s favour. just from personal experience it doesn’t seem like Ken has got any advantage in this match.

vs Urien is 6-4 The only that keeps this from being a hard counter match is Urien’s damage advantage. From most ranges, he can’t crouch Remy’s High LoVs. Remy can escape Midscreen Unblockables with a Reversal EX RRF. He hasn’t got a Reversal-Type Super, so Remy can poke with the c.forward more often then usual. Urien’s jump is rather high, so far s.strong is an absolutely safe Anti-Air. Even when parried, you can follow it up with another one. It just takes quite an amount of work for Urien to get in at all.

Some random matchups

I think Urien vs Alex is way harder then 4-6.
Dudley vs Chun is more 3-7
Akuma vs Makoto 5-5 .
Yang vs Urien 7-3.

Regarding Necro vs Chun Li

Necro’s cr.foward is really slow, he can get SAII’ed on recovery.

Also, Chun’s normals out-prioritize Necro’s. Fear B+FP.