SSFIV question regarding reversals

Pretty much, I don’t have too much of a difficult time fighting players that like me tend to block / throw on wakeup, but whenever I play people that just reversal everything, it goes as follows: In 10 seconds: I get 3 knockdowns, do ~8% damage, take ~30%.

Once I cotton on to it happening very regularly, I start focus baiting and just dashing out of range, then dashing in and throwing, usually two or three times until they stop wakeup ex (enter invincible move here), at which point they 99/100 times eat a level 3 focus attack.

But I’ve got a very strange feeling this will only work on a few, bad players…

What can I do to start predicting wakeups? How do you know when to throw a jab or short and continue another blockstring?