It’s been a little while, so my memory of exact data is a little off, but even if post-Hayate is just guessing games, there are things you can do to at least increase you chances. How well these work will depend on your character, and their individual jump start-up. I think most characters start up in 4 frames, but I know ones like Hugo start-up much later.
First advice, is when you get hit by Hayate, it’s important to recognize if she is actually in range for Karakusa. Generally speaking she will be, but depending on the number of repetitions of hayates she’s hitting you with during this mixup of hers, she will push herself out a bit sometimes, depending on the normals she’s using. This is mostly just knowledge you’ll pick up as you play against her. If she can’t Karakusa, her mix-up options are much worse, so it’s good to recognize when it does rarely happen.
That aside, what are your options?
- You could just try and DP. If you have one.
- If the Makoto isn’t quite up to snuff, or you’ve trained the player to hesitate, you can do a jump back parry to attempt to thwart some of her options. If Makoto doesn’t do frame precise pressure, to cover as many options as possible, you can…
- Jump back
- The moment you leave the ground do a aerial parry attempt. This will stop any grounded normals she used, if any.
- Immediately after that parry attempt, use your fastest air to air normal. This is to stop Makotos who are trying to chase down jump back attempts.
Done correctly against a Makoto who isn’t attacking non-stop, you can get out fairly safely with this. Now Makoto being Makoto, she can actually react dash and grab you from this. If you anticipate that, you can NOT do the jump back normal after the parry attempt and just eat the aerial normal, if she pursues that way. Then you use your aerial normal on your return to the ground.
- Parry, then jump. Try and find the pattern in your opponent’s Hayate pressure. If they like to do 2LK->Hayate or 5LK->Hayate, or 5LP into tick throw Karakusa, you can select one of these parry options, then jump in a specific pattern. Basically, parry either forward or down, then go immediately to up. Done correctly (which is not easy), this will parry one of those grounded options, should she choose to do a normal, and jump over a Karakusa, should she choose to grab you. Her most common moves used after Hayate are 5 frame moves (4 start-up), and LK Karakusa starts up in 7 frames (active on 8), so you have a very small window between the 5th and 7th frame to go to up.
This option obviously loses to buttons the opposite of what you expected, delayed buttons, or even a raw throw from her. However, with Makoto, you’re always guessing, sadly.
It’s always going to be a guessing game, but the more options you can cover, the better.
Sadly, while I love Makoto as a character, she is bullshit as fuck in 3S. Easily one of the most fun characters to watch, to play, and is highly technical at high levels of play (Mimora is probably the most Makoto Makoto player ever, he does insane stuff with her, utilizing tricks only he bothers to learn. Don’t think he’s the best Makoto, but he’s definitely the only Makoto player playing her that personifies the character, much like RX Urien), but she is also the most bullshit character to play against.
Even mediocre Makotos are a huge threat to even the best player, since she can steal rounds like no one’s business. Going against Makoto, you are expected to be perfect, one mistake and you lose. I know it sounds impossible to not let that 11 frame dash in, but you’ve got to constantly be checking empty space with buttons, specifically ones which hit on the lower side, cause hey, her dash also low profiles a lot of standing normals.