Matchup charts tell how in a set of ten rounds, what the average wins would be for each competitor. Ex) 7-3 means that competitor one would win 7 of those ten rounds while competitor two would win 3 of those rounds.
Here’s the problem. It’s very misleading. We have to go into some rather deep statistics to prove it though.
The problem is that real life tournament matches are a best 2 out of 3 rounds per match (you have to win 2 rounds for the match win to count as yours). At least in SF and most fighting games that’s how it works.
So what we should really be looking at is the odds of characters to win 2 out of 3 rounds!
This is how it works: We’ll take a 7-3 matchup and look at the true chances of player two winning the match. We have to look at all possible outcomes.
The first possible outcome is that player two wins both the first and second round. What are the odds of player two winning the first round? The answer is 30%. Okay, so what are the odds that he wins the first round and second round? The answer is 30% times 30% which is 9%.
But this is just one possible outcome. The next possible outcome is that player two loses the first round but wins the next two. What are the odds for this? The answer is he has a 70% chance of losing the first round times a 30% chance of winning the second round times a 30% chance of winning the third round: 70% times 30% time 30% = 6.3%. So he has a 6.3% chance of this outcome occuring.
The final possible outcome is that player two wins the first round, loses the second round, and then wins the third (final) round. The odds follow the same method as used before: 30% times 70% times 30% = 6.3%.
Now is the moment of truth. We find the true odds of player two winning his disadvantageous 7-3 matchup while taking into account that winning a match means winning a best 2 out of 3 rounds. All we have to do is add the seperate chances!
9% + 6.3% + 6.3% = 21.6%.
I hope this is somewhat of an eye opener for people.
When you see 7-3 matchup, it does not mean player two has a 30% chance of winning the match. They really have a 21.6% chance.
Please let me know if my math was wrong all you ppl with statistics knowledge!