It’s been a while since I’ve gone against a good makoto player, but I’ll try to offer some insights. Obviously, it’s a guessing game. Some of the biggest factors you need to stay on top of to make sure you even have a chance of hell in winning are:
- What to do after a blocked hayate (chesto!): There are basically two situations here. Depending on what version she uses at what range, she will either be in range for you to do a close standing forward, or not. If she is in range, you can do standing forward, slaps, or suber. If she’s not in range, you can kara throw her, or, if you have a super ready, hit her back with just a super. You have to be pretty quick if you’re using SA1, since it has a much slower startup time.
- Q is a sucker for people with good jump-in games. However, since her jump in ax kick is so slow, you can almost alway back strong her out of it. If the makoto player knows what he’s doing, he will probably start mixing in regular jumping attacks, so watch out. You should be able to react to makoto if she starts doing the axe kick, otherwise, just block. If she attacks from max range with her jumping roundhouse and you parry it, there’s not much you can do anyway.
- Taunts: Obviously Q needs taunts to win. If the makoto player uses SA2, you’re pretty much SOL. Try to get your taunts in before she has the meter, take damage while taunting if you have to, I’ll eat a hayate in trade for a taunt any day of the week.
Other random stuff, I usually try to use standing short to stop her karakusa grabs. If you’re feeling lucky after interrupting her grab with short, go for a short C&DB, fierce slaps combo. The short grab is the fastest and may catch her off gaurd. So yeah, this is a very difficult matchup. The easiest way to get out of her karakusa guessing game trap is to never get caught in it in the first place.