Not really a theory man. Its pretty much 100% you can test it yourself. Again randomness is slightly a factor. But in general there is a rule to when you are going to dizzy and when you are not. I actually posted ryus dizzys rates not to long ago. Lemme copy and paste…
From highest to lowest
Jump normals dizzy
-neutral jump hk, then hp
-neutral jump mp
-diagonal jump mp/mk
-diagonal jump hp
-diagonal jump hk
-close stand hk
-duck mp/mk, close stand mp/mk stand hp/hk/mp/(mk I forget… it might be here),duck hk*
-close stand hp, duck hp
So basically if you are going for dizzy its almost always better to do medium jump ins to a medium canceable attack to special. The chance of dizzying is quite a bit higher. A lot of characters actually follow similar patterns. Besides a few here and there sorta things… In general you can sorta think of it like diagonal jumping/close/far/and crouching mediums do more then there hard counter parts. And almost every character in the game can actually just dizzy with a neutral jump attack to a medium or 2.
When I ment knocking down I ment like… Its the same reason think of why ryus red fireball seems to do less stun then his blue fireball. If a character is knocked downed down you gotta take away like half of the stun of that move about. So lets say the move does 3 points of stun. Well if it dizzys its all good. BUT, if the move is going to knock down and not dizzy then once the dude stands back up you gotta take away that point and a half in your brain.
Also(this one im actaully not 100% on, as it could be the random factor coming into play here but…)moves tend to do less stun the more then are used in a row. Examples being say new ryus jump mp. If it hits twice, the following combo tends to have a less dizzying chance as if it only hit once. Same way if you were to say do nothing but one attack over and over trying to dizzy. But if you throw in another attack along the way. Much higher chance of dizzying. I assume this is why in ST unlike real old SF it is much harder to dizzy with rapid fire shorts etc. Beacuse in ST they added if you keep doing the same move over and over again less chance to dizzy thing. Where as if you were to do it in SF2 or some shit. Not that hard.
Anyway nah, I havn’t played much man. I started trying to sign on to play ST randomly towards the end of this(errr last)year. But carpal tunnel, bones growing out of hands all the usual health problems… And well my controller broke to the point of being unplayable ive basically stopped. ha… I do plan on buying a new controler sometime this year though… just hard to force myself to, when I don’t really play so its… not very economical? to say? lol
Maybe if im ever out that way though again and your with nick or something we can play though. Will see.