This issue has been going around and around for so long now, I don’t think anyone can say with any authority whether the defender has an advantage or whether it’s 50-50. I think the only thing the community can agree on saying, is that the attacker does not have the advantage. And unless there is definitive proof or empirical evidence (which I haven’t seen), then the issue of defender having advantage or being 50-50 is not settled yet. When the defender is knocked down, yes, he has an advantage on wakeup, that I agree with. But I’m not so sure about standing tick throws or after a reset. I think it is 50-50, but I could be wrong without empirical proof.
@OP: either the defender has advantage or it’s 50-50, but in either case, the best thing to always do in that situation is to always go for the reversal throw.
And even when it comes to Special throws vs Normal throws, that issue has not been completely settled yet either. I know Thelo did some tests a while back, and proved that Honda’s Ochio can be beat by Dictator’s normal throw. But I would like to see more tests being done, especially vs the other Command throws like SPD and Typhoon. As well as testing all characters’ Normal throws vs the 3 Special throws. Maybe Dictator is the only one that can beat Special throws, who knows? :razzy: