I’m bored before the Canada game, so I’m gonna post up thoughts on who I think is gonna win (if I drop it) and I’m not including MTL.
The “I would not be surprised if they won” Tier
Spiral Guy: Has the most accomplishments out of anyone else left, winner of TV Tourney #2 and only one non-top 5 finish IIRC. If he stops running MW2 all the time, he would probably be the favourite. Has some flaws, and can get randomly gimmicked. If he can get to GF’s tho, I don’t see many people beating him 8 times.
Eric Hai: The most skilled out of everyone left IMO. However has no tourney accomplishments, and is weak against skilled console chars. When it comes to execution and mixups, no ones better tho. I can’t see him losing a FT10 against anyone, but in tournaments it’s 2/3 and anything can happen.
Mr. Trite: Probably the smartest person left, and the most insane. If he even shows, he will certainly do well. Has the best Akuma in the GTA and can pretty much play a wide variety of chars which is a strength and a weakness in tourney. But since he’s Trite and hes insane, he probably doesn’t like money and won’t show up.
Blitzman: The flashiest left. He’s been putting in the time for a while now and a big win is due. Probably the person who has the biggest edge over myself. Doesn’t really have any bad matchups, its all about whether he wants it enough, or gets the perfect high which allows him to play godlike and not care.
People who can win with a good bracket Tier
Rebelo: Has a few weaknesses but if you play a fireball char against him he’s really hard to beat (unless its Sagat). The wake up game is weak, but hopefully it’s improved by then. If he plays the right people to get far, and can get into GF’s he can adapt surprisingly well and can be very frustrating to play a long set against.
Nagata Lock: Has put in a shocking amount of time lately. He’s very capable of winning if he plays people he plays on a regular basis. Lives by the read and dies by the read. Interested to see what would happen if he gets mindfucked, as his game deteriorates quickly. With Chun, she has too little health and even a wrong guess or two could be costly.
Traninho: The most consistent person in the scene probably. Only problem is that the skill right now isnt enough to win a tourney. He beats people he should beat and can’t seem to win against people he has a disadvantage in. Also hasn’t really changed the way he plays since he started getting top results, so would be interesting to see if he’s been figured out or he can pull it out. Could definitely be better by rushing down a bit more.
Chaos2D: The other rog, completely different style but almost the same results as Traninho. Again, could probably benefit from changing up once in a while. Is very good in the clutch but again, if someone has a noticeable edge it becomes really hard for him to win. With the right bracket though he has a legit shot at winning.
Complete Wildcards who have a shot of winning Tier
Random Rey: TV 3 winner and the very definition of “I don’t give a fuck and I just want to win to see you get mad”. The absolute worst person you can play in the first or 2nd round. The only problem with him is hes got a family and he’s flip, both good reasons for never wanting to move around ever. However if he lost his job and needed money…watch out…
Gerjay: Already said he wouldn’t enter, but I think he still has a legit shot if he actually works at it once in a while. Plays the scummiest char, and a char that not many people know how to fight against. Is definitely capable of pulling off some scummy upsets and maybe even winning it all.
Buddah: Scummy seth who plays a LOT. There aren’t a lot of matchups that he doesn’t know. Conversely, not a lot of people know how to play against Seth. (mainly me) Already has a top 5 in the first qualifier and is definitely hungry. Debatable that he has the best tourney record out of all of us, since his big results are usually even bigger donkfests than normal.
Complete Wildcards that probably won’t win, but can fuck up the Bracket Tier
Sacojericho: I was really close to putting him in the tier above but theres just way too many bad matchups for fuerte. However hes capable of beating anyone when he guesses right.
Anant/LedHendrix: I grouped these two together because they both play abel with different styles. Again with the right guessing, they can beat anyone in the tiers above or at least make them work for it. Both have some tourney nerves, due to not going to a lot of tourneys. When they’re on though, they can be really streaky.
JTN: Scummy bison who never shows up to casuals but still places top 10 pretty consistently. But if you asked me how he plays, I would have no idea.
Shane Walker: Need I say more?