I watched the 1st and 4th and I’m not really sure what you’re talking about as far as using it as a reset or a bait.
c.mp’s main advantage over c.mk is it has slightly farther range. Otherwise its slower and can’t be canceled, and if you want to do a low move up close, you might as well use the move that you can cancel into something in case it gets parried.
Look at the matchup in terms of where each character is most threatening. Alex can only hurt Chun when he’s pretty much in her face. In your case, you can deal damage up close, but if you’re near the edge of your c.mk range, you can still land super, kara throw, and have a wide array of good normals that are still effective at this range, while Alex’s only options are dash in, jump, and mk. You only need to look out for 3 things while Alex is still afraid of almost your entire arsenal (and bonus, even if he parries a fp or c.mk from this range his punish doesn’t hurt that much)
Holding this position will make Alex come to you and expose himself to damage. By running at him, you’re doing all the hard work of closing the gap for him. Why put yourself in a position where Alex has even footing with you when you can distance him and have a huge advantage?
-Get solid at punishing Alex’s dash ins
-Mix in some forward taps (parry attempts) when you’re at the range only his mk can hit
-Master Chun’s kara throw
-Learn to reversal blocked ex slash elbow with sa2 (there’s probably other things you can reversal punish but I’m not a chun main)
…and you’ll be on the right track to owning Alex. It’s not much a problem of predictability as it is a problem of exposing yourself to unnecessary risk.